The recent slowness in higher end is not for lack of money. Remember what @ptiemann told us about his numbers in Sunnyvale? His potential buyers all have ample cash. But for some reason they are pulling back.
I suppose if you have suddenly a wall of easy money washing over everyone will be buying willy nilly. But I see the recent slowness as more complicated than a simple lack of money. Because people do have money. Lots of it.
Donât blame landlords. Blame Dodd Frank. The governmentâs punishment of banks çaused collateral damage to Joe sixpack homebuyers. .Too hard for the average Joe to get a loanâŚCash buyers were given an unfair advantage. .Of course the government will blame landlords, when it only has itself to blameâŚ
Millienials are having less sexâŚhttp://www.telegraph.co.uk/women/sex/no-sex-please-were-millennials/
What does that mean in 10 -20 yearsâŚPopulation crash?
Maybe they are just delaying all the trappings of adullthoodâŚAfterall they think they will live longer than previous generationsâŚAnd more young people live longer with their parents than in the pastâŚtalk about a sex buzz kill. âŚ
Facebook benefits will pay for them to freeze their eggs so they donât need to have sex to have kids. 
It a benefit I really have strong feelings against. Our bodies are designed to have kids in their 20s and 30s. We need to adapt the workplace to that not try and push women to have kids in their 40s and 50s for the benefit of the company and their career.
Agree.
Same here. In fact, when it came out, I think it was real negative PR hit for them.
Amazon may be trying to roll out 30 hour a week groups to attract the women with kids in school. Thatâs way better.
Less birth control pills, less abortions. But you donât need to divest from the pharm companies as the elderly will keep their profits up.
Iâm not saying they wonât want homes. I think theyâll want smaller ones though. I think 3/2 and 4/3 at most. The 5+ bedroom homes arenât appealing. I think the $3M+ market will stay flat relative to the sub $1.4M market. Also, charter schools are changing the game. I know people that live in areas with good schools that send their kids to charter schools. You donât have to live in the neighborhood.
We have impacts on oil+energy failing and way down 70% level. I booked some flights between now and Dec 31st. I am seeing flight rates so inexpensive like I had seen in year 2000 and year 2008 downturn.
On top of it, Remember FED increase in rate by Dec 2015 created stock fall in Jan/Feb 2016.
Tech industry got a hit this year. Most of the bay area tech stocks (aapl, googl,nflx,twtr,yelp and so many others) never recovered after that.
The restaurant industry has been struggling, an industry-wide downturn that could portend danger for the economy overall. Second-quarter earnings released in recent weeks showed disappointing same-store sales for many of the industryâs publicly traded chains, including Burger King, Chipotle, McDonaldâs, Shake Shack, Wendyâs and Zoeâs Kitchen. Alongside weak same-store sales numbers, Ruby Tuesday announced earlier this month that it would close 95 restaurants.
Healthcare+Pharmacy (Biotech) is getting hurt by Clinton messages as they expect major changes may come.
With all these, even if there is one more rate hike happens, for sure, 2017 will be bottom.
Otherwise, potential chance 2016 is bottom. This is main reason, my guess is 2016 is bottom, going forward.
It is up to the next President+House+Senate team to make this or break this situation !
Frankly, if there is a recession coming, it will be horrible as no one will be spared by that
Unless FED hikes the rate, we are not going to get recession. FED learnt the issue/lessons by raising 0.25% in Dec 2015.
Potential chance 2016 is bottom like we had in 2011 !
Listen here, if there is major changes or issues with many banks, we are done too !
I think the market should react to the Fed, not the other way around. Although now might not be the best time to hike rates, I do think a hike is coming (but what do I know, I am just a naive millennial).
Still the global economy is going to have a major influence/reaction.
Yes, no doubt, global has impacted US economy.
We may be under correction territory now. Note that everyone declares correction after the fact.
This is the main reason FED can not raise the rate in near future.
So You still say no raise in December?
And, this is why the internet is splashed full of Kardashians, ads for The Housewives of XYX and campus ârape cultureâ stories.
I think the big mistake we make is when we lump a huge chunk of our population born within a certain time frame into a single mindset tribe and refer to them as âMillenialsâ.
I have a twenty something, college grad working for me on analytical projects and we have twenty something service workers working for us washing and fueling our fleet every day. And, although I freely admit to not relating to or, understanding their outlook on life most of the time, I can clearly see that their thinking isnât consistent across the cohort either.
A good debater could have Warren for lunch. Too bad Mr. Stumpf isnât that person.
Where are our intellectuals when we need them?
Personally, Iâd have taken the risk of contempt of congress and refused to testify myself. This is an unclear area of law. The constitution provides no such powers to congress. The risks are minimal and the potential one year in jail and $1,000 fine seem trivial compared to letting a boneheaded congress critter walk all over you like you are and accused on trial in a kangaroo court.
I think Iâm going to get some WFC calls tomorrow. This thing will blow over. Even all the way out to January, 2018 is cheap.
No raise until Feb 2017 (100% confidence), Jun 2017 (75%), Dec 2017 (50% confidence too long to Guess!)
Do they have to raise in 1/4 points? Canât they just do 1/100 point? Then they âraisedâ but itâs insignificant