Real Estate in Secular Uptrend

I think the stock market rebound will stabilize BA prices. The gloom and doom is gone. The market volatility has shown that RE is more stable than the stock market. I bet smart buyers will sell stocks and buy houses

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Correct so 2-3x overall is suspect.

I suppose fixer-uppers at great deals(after fixing costs) can be the explanation.

However, in Bay Area very hard to get such deals in my experience unless it’s in a bad recession.

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Remember all the perma bears who all paid way below market rent? :slight_smile:

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There are always multi family gems that can be remodeled extensively (usually $20-30k per unit + $100-200K for the building/landscape) to literally double the rent.

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@REInv

You sound as old as @Elt1 :grinning:, could be as old as @ptiemann

Btw, I bought turnkey in tier 1 neighborhoods. Not interested in any remodeling and dislike high probability of problematic tenants.

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Those are rarely cash flow positive in Bay Area. Only upside comes with the routine appreciation.

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Agree. I didn’t invest in any rentals in BA. I was renting out my ex-Primary.

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You realize MFH and SFH are different markets with different buyers and behaviors, right?

Wow, things are already looking very bad for RE in Bay Area, specially Single Family Homes. I guess prices will keep declining for a while. Rental market is pretty strong though :-).

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JP don’t buy RE speech and news of high tech layoffs and hiring freeze scare the shit out of investors and potential renter-turn-buyers.

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True. Plus RE prices in Bay Area are indeed ridiculous. 2M for a crumbling old shack on a tiny lot is a tough sale in the times of remote work, declining population and high interest rates. Also not good for long term sustainable economy.

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So long is not fully remote, commuting time matters.

From my observation, tech jobs listed have almost 39 % fully remote/ hybrid as of today.

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From what I’ve seen, they’ll quickly negotiate hybrid to remote if you ask.

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You guys are making me worried about my CU property. Secular downtrend of house prices in SV?

Weather. People will stay in SV for the great weather.

Why not San Diego, equally good weather? It’s half of Bay Area.
Why not central coast? It’s a quarter of Bay Area. Why not Hawaii? Why not Portland?
There are many cities with great weather.

Young people still want to work in the office. I think the real question is what will they want when they get mid-career and later? I think the new model will be move to the expensive, coastal cites after college. Start a career and climb the ladder a bit. Then move back near family when it’s time to raise a family. Remote work allows people to do that without severely limiting their career options.

I will say time zone differences can make remote work not quite as good as the fantasy of it. I’m back east this week and working. Between most of the company being west coast and working with China, my hours are completely messed up. I’d want to be the same time zone or only 1 hour difference.

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