the kids are all grown up 
Millennials Are Supercharging the Housing Market
The generation that supposedly didnât want to buy things now accounts for over half of all home-purchase loan applications; economists expect them to bolster demand for years
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Recall an article posted earlier in this thread said this trend will last 2 decades 
I am so confident that this secular tailwind would trump all other headwinds (stock market turmoil etc) that I have bought another SFH Four in one year 
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Rents rising and flipping more competitive means donât sell just buy and hold.
I argued for Hoenigâs position back in 2011 and 2012 and avoided real estate. Focused on stock appreciation instead. Succumbed and bought real estate in 2015. Did well over the last six years but I do wonder if rate hikes next year signal a turn for both real estate and stocksâŚ
Home ownership is the number one way to wealth and financial security.
Amazon bought a 7 acre piece of land in Santa Clara on Mission College Blvd. The land is diagonally across the Intel Santa Clara Head office (Robert Noyce Building)
I think early 2022 will be the peak for home prices, at least for a few years. As the report says, SFH prices have risen by 30+ % YOY in many urban areas including right here in Silicon Valley. This is an abnormally high rate of increase fueled by Fedâs money printing and low interest rates.
Now that the Fed is taking away the punch bowl, the party will end soon. The next 3 months will be the peak, as buyers with access to cash (down payment) look to buy and lock in low interest rates.
But afterwards, I think prices will either decline (in exurbs) or flat-line (in RBA) for next 3-4 years, until Fed is done raising rates, and looks to increase their balance sheet again once the economy (inevitably) softens.
Assuming 6% average yearly rate of appreciation in RBA, real estate has already borrowed appreciation from the future 5 years (till 2027). During previous downturn, it took 5 years (2007-2012) and massive money printing for RE market in bay area to recover from the crash of 2008.
Yes, that is right. Though, one could say that between 2018-2020, RBA RE had flatlined, so maybe some of last yearâs spike was to make up for the 2018-20 period.
Still, it is safe to say that RE has borrowed appreciation from the next 3-4 years, so itâs likely to flatten till 2025 at least.
Those who are buying now had better be prepared to HODL for next 3-5 years just to break evenâŚ
I donât think asset appreciation works like this at all⌠look at the last 100 years of stock market behavior as an example.
