Yellen says no recession. And we can expect one rate cut before the end of the year. It’s going to be shallow slowdown.
If there is a severe slowdown, Fed can cut rate. Does Trump have anything to stimulate the economy in 2019 and 2020 to help his reelection? He can make a trade deal with China. What else?
No rate in visibility for next 5 years unless recession hits. FED won’t relax as their prime aim to bring up the economy on its own. No China deal in near future. Trump made it clear even if deal is reached he won’t lift 10% tariff. IMO, China issue is Trump’s political stunt and he will not relax until election is over.
Wait and watch…what he is doing…
Remember people claimed Trump tax cut will lift GDP growth to 4% for years to come, despite all credible economists saying otherwise? What a cruel joke. 
I bought a home last year with 4.56% mortgage interest rate, should I refinance to 4% now or wait for it to drop more?
I’m afraid if home prices drop in recession, I won’t have 20% equity of appraisal price
I will refi😀
Refi.
Cash out refi ASAP
Shouldn’t you sell it right now if you think it will drop 20%?
10 year yield is dropping like a rock, 2.37% today
This means people are moving cash from stocks to bond as bond prices goes on demand(buyside) which results yield coming down.
I bet you a million dollars that the market has not peaked.
Usually the benchmark is 2Y/10Y. 3M is pretty meaningless because it’s too short and mostly controlled by the Fed. You want to gauge investors’ risk appetite and growth/inflation estimates. 2Y is long enough maturity that it’s not just automatically controlled by Fed fund rate.
Here’s the chart for 2y/10y yield curve going back to 1976:
Couple thoughts:
We are still positive even today on 2y/10y
It went negative to -0.05 in June 1998. Recession didn’t start until 2001.
2y/10y should theoretically be easier to invert than 3m/10y but yet it’s still positive unlike 3m/10y
If you want to compare 10y vs very short term rate here’s 10y vs Fed fund rate. There doesn’t seem to have any relationship with recessions:
Finally, when you try to use yield inversion data from the past to predict the future today, keep in mind the nominal value:
During the decade between 2010 and today, rates have never been lower. Are you sure yield inversions in the 80s, when rates were in the teens, have any prevalence in the low rate environment today? At the very least, shouldn’t we look into the reasons why inflation is so low today, and see what are the structural reasons? If the structure of the global economy has changed, why are yield inversions meaningful in today’s environment?
Ok that means recession is at least 5 years away… 
Stock market is flat since 2017. Plus BA RE is stalled. Hard to make money anywhere.
Then just collect your rents (or dividends) and call it a day.
FB?
You just see 3 mins video , you will know what happens
Cash is paying 2.2% at Barclays. Why by a 10 year at 2.35?