I agree one 6 points out of 7, except “Millennials will move to second-tier cities”.
Millennials will continue to rent as affordability is getting reduced and standard deduction is increased. When standard deduction is increased from 12000 to 30000, there is no benefit of owning a home when itemized is less than 30000 ! By raising the mortgage rate, eligibility is reduced and they may not buy condo or townhouses to take advantage of MIRD.
I think anyone without an engineering (or few select other) degrees will move to 2nd tier cities. That’s a vast majority of millennials.
In cities, job opportunities are higher than 2nd tier cities. Anyone with or without degrees normally look for higher pay or higher income, they tend to migrate towards cities than other areas.
Job opportunities are the main drivers for city population increase.
With standard deduction raising to 30000, there is no incentive for them to buy the homes. In cities, renting and sharing is easier to get near by job locations.
How much do you think the average college grad makes? Do you think that’s enough to live in SF or NYC? Many companies have their HQ in major cities but setup sizable offices in second-tier cities too. Not everyone graduating is going to get a tech job paying $100k/yr starting. That’s maybe 0.1% of college grads.
The graduates are making from 60k to 100k level. If they take some 2nd tier cities, their chances of getting job at 60k-75k level. If they take the job in SF or NYC, they can get 75k to 90k level.
But job opportunities or growth (switching jobs) are easier at cities.
When they share accommodation, which they normally do until get married, they can pay $700 in cities, but around $400 in 2nd tier.
I have always seen migration towards cities during young ages. Once they try to settle like buy home, they migrate suburbs or outside of cities, based on affordability.
Do you realize what a tiny percent of college grads you’re talking about? You’re talking about the top 5-10%. There’s still the other 90-95% who need to live and work somewhere.
I answered your question “How much do you think the average college grad makes? Do you think that’s enough to live in SF or NYC? Many companies have their HQ in major cities but setup sizable offices in second-tier cities too. Not everyone graduating is going to get a tech job paying $100k/yr starting. That’s maybe 0.1% of college grads.”
Now, you feel it is tiny population. Fine.
But, you see my original response
“Anyone with or without degrees normally look for higher pay or higher income, they tend to migrate towards cities than other areas”.
This is , I hope , addressing entire population, not even restricted to Millennials.
This is the main reason, Cities are getting congested and roads are filled with cars. As long as economy is growing, cities will be growing faster than 2nd tier places.
Only 15% of college grads have a job within 90 days of graduating. For the 15% of chosen ones, their median salary is $50k. That means over 90% of college grads don’t have jobs or have jobs paying under $50k/yr. then if you look at 2 years after graduating, 51% have jobs that don’t require a degree. That’s the real world not Silicon Valley’s magic little world.
[College grads are getting nearly all the jobs] (http://money.cnn.com/2016/06/30/news/economy/college-grads-jobs/)
As I pointed out, over half of the college grads have jobs that don’t require a degree. Do you think those pay a high income?
First you are talking about graduates. When I reply with some proof, you are going back to non-graduates. There is no point in endless arguments.
It reminds me like LEXA.
Let me stop here. Any way, I will not be available for next 20 days for any update.
Good Luck to all of you and Merry Christmas.
No. I’m talking about college graduates and 51% of college graduates have a job that doesn’t require a degree. They are still college graduates even if their job doesn’t require the degree.
There you can see median income for 25-34 year old college grads working full-time is under $50k/yr. Then there’s the ones that aren’t working or aren’t working full-time.