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You enjoy such (frequent?) rebalancing of asset allocation? So far, I didn’t sell any index funds or RE or AAPL holdings. What I do is pump AAPL dividends + opportunistic cash-out refi of existing properties into RE.
Yeah thats why its probably wise to keep some cash (like 10% of NW) for the next year or so as the economy recovers from the historical roller coaster ride it had. You never know where stocks, bonds and RE are headed but you know for sure that cash will yield 2-3% return and will not fall nominally. And who knows where the next best opportunities will appear so better to be prepared.
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= intervention 
Correct equivalence?
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U.S. home prices (including distressed sales) increased 18.3% year over year in June 2022, compared to June 2021. On a month-over-month basis, home prices increased by 0.6% compared to May 2022 .
Annual U.S. home price gains are forecast to slow to 4.3% by June 2023.
So if you wait a year, house price will only go up by 4% compared to now.
Rates heading back up.
Of course, because gas prices are now down, down, down!!! Inflation is dead!!! Let’s get back to buying people!!!
Gas prices are falling — Here’s why it’s happening and whether it can continue (msn.com)
Inventory in free fall. Sellers would rather delist than selling at too low (to them) a price.
There won’t be much discount for buyers. On the other hand appreciation would be muted as well. A stalemate is likely.
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Please don’t make me laugh again. You need to consider many profiles.
Recall the decision of upgraders is to choose between buy new home then sell current Primary or sell current Primary then buy new home. Because of the fast rising home prices, many upgraders choose to buy new home and sell Primary later using a bridging loan. Guess what would happen?
Those sellers that are delisting are usually financially strong investors, so they are listing them as rentals, thus putting pressure on rents. This + seasonality have already caused rents to decline in Austin. Didn’t check but I believe is similar in Bay Area.
Go through all other profiles…
True. But the real data shows otherwise. Inventory is indeed dropping much faster than previous years at this time. How do you explain that?
Your arguments sound valid @hanera but damn data clearly supports @manch hypothesis.
This is just real estate prices being sticky. Rather than sell at 15–20% discount vs March '22, many sellers are opting to wait it out. Trade up buyers as well have locked in sub-3% interest rates and are waiting out the current spike in rates. So we have seen a decrease in supply offsetting the decrease in demand. Eventually higher rates either become the new normal and pent up supply is released onto the market, or we enter a recession, rates drop, and trade up buyers come back into play.
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I was focusing on his statement 
i.e. price. Using the generic belief that inventory influences price to conclude below is incorrect.
You want to know why inventory is falling? Is he referring to Bay Area? I know inventory has exploded in Austin. Supply of inventory is 4.9 months! Mainly due to builders rushing to list their homes.
In Austin, both buyers and sellers are reduced, new listings (exclude new construction) are also reduced but in terms of months of supply is increased because reduction of buyers are slightly more than reduction of sellers.
Inventory in free fall in South Lake Tahoe. Prices of actual sales have dropped 10%. No sellers hurt because prices are just back to where they were in February. Normal inventory for sfhs is 250. Inventory now around 150 down from the recent high of 200. I bet inventory will drop to near the recent record lows of 40. Sellers are not motivated. No buyers market in the future. Some DDD sales will offer bargains. But multi offers are only down to 3,5 from 5 average according to Redfin, nationwide. Our forum resident bear may have to hibernate soon… will be joining the furry 4 legged ones up here. Winter is fast approaching.
Right. That’s what I think is happening in our new 5% plus rate environment.
Back in March, I said higher rates would kill inventory levels. I’m not sure why some were predicting massive inventory increases and crashing prices. I’m annoyed I missed the big move down in tittle companies and mortgage processing companies. They bottomed when mortgages were over 6%.
Local Las Vegas, Phoenix, Austin
RE is a slow motion show. In Austin, some has asking price drop of 18-20% from initial asking but I noted that initial asking is sky high. Most drop 3-5% from initial asking which is slightly more than seasonality effect. Anyhoo, from what I read, the expectation of a crash (>20% drop from peak in May) is from Dec/Jan. Until then, close monitoring and get yourself prepared… scout neighborhoods of interest, raise as much as cash as possible, resist buying (good deal is not good enough, want great deal). I am not sure why one blogger celebrates that prices haven’t crashed yet as if RE behaves like stock, can drop 20% in one day.
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Tahoe prices basically leveled off.
http://www.staor.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/SF-Mkt-Analysis-July-2022.pdf
We will see. The data linked appears to be averaged over 12 month period, so doesn’t only reflect sales closed in July.
What do you think of the inventory in the Tahoe Keys right now? Any reasonable deals? Is it feasible to get a decent sized sailboat in there? e.g. 30 ft, 6–7 ft draft.
I don’t recommend a 6-7 draft boat in the Keys. That deep would probably best in at mooring ball at Camp Richardson. My Catalina 30 got stuck in the West Channel in 2014 15 and 16 by mid July. The draft is 5’3”… As far as houses there are a few deals. But the cheaper one ones are not accessible to the lake… some have slips in the marina. If you want a sailboat in the Keys get a shoal draft. 4’ max. Catalina 25 might work. Plus its trailerable. Big boats aren’t needed in Tahoe. Best are trailerable so you can get them out in the winter. I have to shovel mine.
Send me your email and I can send the MLS listed houses in the Keys
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Come on, the hottest girl at the ball will always be coveted… can’t say for the others.
The properties we all have here in the Bay Area or say SLT will always be desirable over the long run. Obviously, if some long term disasters persist, say like the wildfires, all bets are off…
As far as I know, I have not seen prime properties in SF or around here not selling or selling below asking, just yet. Those dooms day stories about falling prices are for NON PRIME areas, people!!!
You know they say there are only two days a boat owner is happy.
One is the day he bought. The other is when he finally sells.
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