Secular inflation is here

Be careful. Jack Welch got canceled for saying that about unemployment numbers before Obama’s re-election. He was later proven right, but the narrative never changed.

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Screen Shot 2024-02-16 at 7.35.13 AM

Hotter than expected.

Expected first rate cut would be in Jun or Jul. No more Mar or May.

PCE YoY 2.4%

PCE core YoY 2.8%
PCE core MoM 0.4%

We’ll be below 2% by August or September. That’s how these things work

CPI YoY 3.2%, expected 3.1%
CPI MoM: 0.4%, expected 0.4%

CPI core YoY 3.8%, expected 3.7%
CPI core MoM 0.4%, expected 0.3%

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-wholesale-prices-picked-february-124217277.html\

The Labor Department said Thursday that its producer price index — which tracks inflation before it reaches consumers — rose 0.6% from January to February, up from a 0.3% rise the previous month. Measured year over year, producer prices rose by 1.6% in February, the most since last September.

Now there’s this.

Economy is already cooling?

Or it was never as hot as it seemed.

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If rental renewal (on par or reduced) and crowd (visibly less) in restaurants are indicators, consumers are feeling the impact of inflation.

Deleted; bad link

CPI YoY 3.5%, expected 3.4%
CPI MoM: 0.4%, expected 0.3%

CPI core YoY 3.8%, expected 3.7%
CPI core MoM 0.4%, expected 0.3%

PPI (mom) 0.2% vs est 0.3%
PPI (yoy) 2.1% vs est 2.2%
Core PPI (mom) 0.2% vs est 0.2%
Core PPI (yoy) 2.4% vs est 2.3%

Producer Price Index News Release summary

PCE

The dollar is soaring today but so are gold and silver.
Weird.
A massive gold rally in the face of rising interest rates is also weird.

…to which I might add oil is also up strongly. The only thing which, at least in the short term, triggers a flight to both the dollar and commodities is a terrorist attack. And there are always people in the know front running it.