Secular inflation is here

Early part explains how he manages money for his 1000+ clients… similar approach as most fund managers such as Cathie…

Later he explains why he thinks secular inflation is here but would temporarily cool down over the next 3-6 months.

Long term investing position = Energy :slight_smile: yes big bad XOM, Infra stocks, now I know why my CAT and Deere are doing do well :slight_smile:
3-6 months = Big Techs

Remember he is a guy who use fundamentals + EWT :+1:

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Before you want us to spend time with some random guy, what is his track record? Don’t waste our time if he didn’t have over 20% CAGR over a minimum of 5 years.

Posted his videos a dozen time. Where have you been?

Anyhoo, he talked about his track record in the video itself.

Never watch. Who the heck is he?

He is some1 who use fundamentals + EWT :slight_smile: You can ignore the EWT part and don’t follow his recommendation on stocks. I think you should read his view on macro conditions, kind of like you’re reading Cathie’s views on macro conditions. Since I am too lazy to read from so many sources, I just read his YouTube for the macro views.

I don’t care for fund managers’ macro views. These people are not economists and they often get the most basic concepts wrong.

They should just stick to industry and company level analysis.

You behave like Harvard admission board? Make judgement before interviewing (here is reading his video)?

He is not a run-of-the-mill millennial you tubers :slight_smile:

Anyway give us some concrete prediction so we can check back to see if his secular inflation call is correct. Is he calling for 4% inflation next year? 10%?

His prediction is inside the content :slight_smile: You didn’t watch the video… inflation doesn’t matter… is the real interest rate :slight_smile: we need to focus on. Since I am an old man, listening in a half-asleep manner (I may have to watch it again), I think he said is going to be like 1967-1981 baby boomers era. Anyhoo, you shouldn’t have to worry since you have RE :slight_smile: though RE won’t gain as fast as energy and infra stocks but better than most tech stocks… he didn’t talk about RE but is implied, RE is in a secular uptrend nationally for the next 18 years. High P/E tech stocks like you know which ones I mean are not good buy n hold. Btw, he bought into ARKK. I don’t think he understand hi tech that much :slight_smile: I presume you understand tech stocks well, the correct ones would perform VERY WELL too… however many would disappear or fade away.

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1967-1981 was horrible for stocks but fantastic for RE investing

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this is very interesting, thank you for posting this! @manch is just grumpy. :wink:

To be fair economists have a pretty crappy track record on the economy as well.

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Real economists may get the future of the economy wrong. But at least they mostly get the history of the economy right.

The same thing can’t be said about armchair economists, especially inflation alarmists. I am still waiting for the hyperinflation unleashed by trillions of QE they have been warning about since 2009. The Japanese have been waiting for theirs for 30 years.

I love inflation. Unfortunately it has been been dead and buried for 40 years. Fears of it coming back have been hyped during that whole time.

@manch

If you are viewing Rob as an inflation alarmist, you didn’t watch the video and get the “facts” wrong :expressionless: Cause of inflation (didn’t hear him say is hyperinflation) is not those trillions :wink:

Think so lowly of economists? In Singapore, we believe in economists and statisticians because of Goh Keng Swee…

Goh Keng Swee DUT (born Robert Goh Keng Swee ; 6 October 1918 – 14 May 2010) was a Singaporean politician who served as the second Deputy Prime Minister of Singapore from 1973 to 1984, and a Member of Parliament (MP) for the Kreta Ayer constituency for a quarter of a century.

Goh graduated with first class honours in economics in 1951, and won the William Farr Prize for achieving the highest marks in statistics.[4]

In 1954, Goh was able to return to LSE for doctoral studies with the help of a University of London scholarship. He completed his PhD in Economics in 1956,[11]

I just watched that guy’s video, finally. He’s full of crap. :innocent:

Aging demographics is disinflationary. He just focused on supply of labor. He forgot that seniors consume less. Just look at Japan. 30% of Japanese are over 65. They don’t go to bars, don’t need to buy fancy clothes to impress the opposite sexes. They just need to spend on adult diapers.

He pooh poohed the disinflationary force of technology. Well good luck with that. It doesn’t need to be fancy pants AI robot replacing humans. It can be in the form of tens of millions of gig workers like Uber and Doordash drivers making less than minimum wages. Technology also shows up in each worker being slightly more productive year after year, so you need fewer of them.

The guy is careful not to give an explicit target for his “secular inflation” call. Maybe if we see 3% inflation he will come out and declare victory. Bear in mind we saw inflation over 10% during that 70s period he is so obsessed about.

He will lose his clients a truck load of money in the next 10 years. :innocent:

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Maybe we should all invest in the adult diaper business

Politicians and diapers must be changed often, and for the same reason.” -Mark Twain.

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Twain would make a great drinking buddy.

Funny incisive quote. However, apparently no diapers during Mark Twain’s time.

You may want to watch again. This time drop your tinted glasses.

Are you watching the correct YouTube video?

@Elt1 and @jksram didn’t watch the YouTube video for sure.

I am tempted to draw some charts to explain then I realize most of you are not visual learning style so can’t understand graphs and charts well. I am too lazy to write an essay.

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