This is a fun site for inflation stats:
For example, price inflation rate for fish and seafood is 1.51% this year. There was deflation in 2015 and 2016:
Deflation in airline tickets:
I bought a TV last year. I still couldn’t believe how cheap it was:
The stats from sites like the above are misleading, if not enlightening. In a natural scheme of things, innovation and creativity lead to productivity gains that cause goods to become cheaper with the progress of time. Read this book to get a good appreciation of the deflation process
Deflation is a natural process which Keynesian and MMT people want to kill causing asset price inflation. In the process, they have made life miserable for savers and distorted economic cycles for everyone else.
my kids and I play imaginary Shark tank in the car to pass the time (each person comes up with a business, and the others decide if they should invest in it) - and we “invented” this on our latest game. Ha so fun to see, thanks for posting!
You need to elaborate. Me no understanding. You mean a PC costing $5000 becomes worth $1000? This mean nothing to those who don’t own computers. Do this deflationary tech results in cheaper pork (from $10 per lb to $5 per lb), cheaper choy sum (from $3 per lb to $1 per lb)? If no, not interested in this deflationary effect of tech.
Well has CPI data reached 3-4% yet? I don’t think it has. So why scream “secular inflation” now?
10 year treasury right now is below 1.6% and it’s supposed to be looking ahead, while CPI is looking backward.
We have had 7-10% inflation in several industries forever. Construction, healthcare, government services and education have had runaway inflation my whole life. Anything that can’t off shored or without technology based cost savings is subject to high inflation.
100 years ago most Americans worked on farms. Today less than 1% do and it’s all because of productivity gain from technology.
Technology is more than IT. How about the billions of dollars spent on researching better breeds? Seeds are a huge business. Tractors can drive themselves now and it’s mind boggling how much a single farmer can do. Imagine how much food would cost if it’s still buffalos pulling plows.
That is why FED clealy tweaked what is counted in inflation so that inflations looks like 0,000000001
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Beat around the bush. Have prices of pork and choy sum decline?
Tech should be deflationary because it allows a worker to produce more output. The moving assembly line is one of the best examples. Now assembly lines have more automation which reduces labor cost. Cars aren’t cheaper because we keep adding more to them. Without the technology improving productivity, cars would cost more.
Business software should be deflationary. Companies should have higher revenue per employee as they get more efficient.
The 2 biggest areas that go against the trend are healthcare and education. Guess where the government is the most involved?
All I know is,
What gives? Tech is deflationary. Employ tech should lower cost of production and hence price of goods, right? No, because wages are increasing? Why are wages increasing? To pay for increased prices of grocery? housing? cars? Or is it only wages of those work in tech has been increasing, while non-tech are not? Tech guys have money and hence push up prices of things they want which make them unaffordable by non-tech?
I think tech is deflationary has to be clearly explained… what are being deflated! Somehow I got the feeling people who make that phrase seem to mean everything is deflated by it which is not true.
Btw, just to be clear, I am not affected by those price increases. To me, everything is deflationary.
Cheaper? Same? Are you implying will cost more? Why? Wages have increased? Why?
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Guess you are referring to the title. When OP is created, the message is CPI has stopped trending down and will be trending up. It is not intended to convey that CPI has reached 3-4%.
If you don’t like the title, propose a new one. My English is not that good 
The downtrend of CPI rate has bottomed and is reversing. Good title?
What happens once people spend the money they saved up during covid, and the government stops sending free checks? Spending will return to normal and so will inflation. I’m amazed Yellen is talking out both sides of her mouth. She says we may need to increase rates due to all the stimulus. Then she says we need to spend trillions on infrastructure which is more stimulus.
Supply chain issue is more likely the cause of recent spike in inflation than monetary policy.
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Let’s assume you and JC are right. Will current uptrend reverse? How long will that take to reach “normal”? Can we define “normal” as continue declining towards zero?
I think the short term spike will be gone by the end of the year.
However, there is actually a good chance we will see your “secular inflation” coming true, defined as 3-4% inflation for a long stretch of time, if Biden’s fiscal plan jolts the American economy back into full gear. Remember Larry Summers’ “secular stagnation” thesis a couple years back? His theory is that America is locked into this low growth low inflation equilibrium. Basically we have become Japan.
Main reason is that we don’t have enough aggregate demand in the economy. Wage growth is nonexistent and employment-to-population ratio is stuck at low levels. Without demand businesses have no incentives to invest. So they just issue dividends and do buybacks.
If Biden’s plan passed Congress there is a good chance we will America grow (relatively) fast again and with that a healthy dose of inflation will come. So it’s up to Congress.
We have had massive wage inflation in California caused by raising the minimum wage, closing the borders and the full employment during the Trump years and his tariffs were inflationary. We have had further inflation caused by the stimulus.
If you tried to hire anyone or buy anything you would know this. The $10/hr day labor is now $30-35. Plumbers in Tahoe charge up to $180/hr. Boats, cars, appliances, tractors construction materials are all up 20-100% in just one year. Steel up 100%, copper 100%, lumber. 180%. Not to mention Tahoe house prices. Up 40-100% in one year
When I moved to Tahoe 8 years ago there were plenty of $10/hr jobs. 2br apartments for $750.
Now 2br apartments are $1800-$2500. I am vetting tenants just talked to 30 of them that make up to $300k per year. They can pay $4000/m for a 3br house. Almost all locals not BA transplants. Carpenters making $100k, strippers working part time making $75k. Tattoo artist making $300k. Your BA tech salaries don’t seem that large anymore. Even maids are getting $25/hr min. I had one woman apply who manages vacation rentals makes $200k per year. One pot grower that makes $750k/year tax free.
no inflation.