Secular inflation is here

Inflation in US vs Eurozone. Notice the sharp rise in the “< 2%” category in the US.

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What? You mean the inflation is NOT secular after all?

Define temporary or transitory. Last less than 1 year? Last less than a quarter? Inflation won’t last forever, wrt forever, is temporary :grinning:

The Fed has not killed the economy. People are spending a lot. Heavenly ski resort was crowded today. A lot of my friends have been going on expensive Europe vacations. Restaurants are crowded. Rents are up. Houses still selling in Tahoe. Costco was packed this weekend. I don’t see any effects from the Powell rampage except on the stock market. Which is ironically the darling of most on this forum.

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When economy like this, do you think FED will stop or pause rate hikes?

Rates are stil going up. I just wonder if people really want to stopspending. We may be in a high interest environment for years like the 70s we are in a similar demographic situation with 159 million y and z kids forming families and spending money. Live for today and forget about tomorrow. No one wants to save money. Plus people are sick and tired of Covid restrictions. Time to enjoy life and party. Screw Powell.


6.97% six days ago. 6.62% today.

Truflaiton continues to go down. Again lowest in a year.

UK though is completely fucked. Tories need to go.

Where is the secular inflation?


Define secular. WRT to history of mankind, inflation is always transitory.

Refer to @mcp post on WMT for inflation. The wealthy guys push up prices for less well off guys.

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Going off gold standard changed everything and it’s bad. A bunch of other things happens around that time. 15-year mortgage became 30. Freddie and Fannie were created.

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“Secular inflation” is your own title. You don’t understand what it means?

Anyway here’s what a secular stock market means:

A secular market is defined as a broad expansion in the economy, corporate profits, and technological developments. It typically includes a bevy of new types of employment, with many new products and services offered. A secular expansion touches upon just about every element of society. Secular bull markets tend to last anywhere from ~15 to 20 years (or longer), and secular bear markets about half to three-quarters as long.

The usual meaning of a “secular anything” is that a) it lasts a long time (10 years or more), and b) the causes are structural (like computer going into every home) that won’t change on a dime.

If the current inflation spike only lasts 2 years, and it’s mostly due to Covid disruptions that’s a one time event, it clearly is not secular. Don’t know why people think it is.

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Nowadays secular = 5+ years
Inflation = above 2% since Fed thinks 2% is neutral.
Hence, secular inflation = Above 2% for more than 5 years.

Remember when the standard for quoting interest rates was the 30 year and not the 10 year?

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US is always with new products, new avenues. The only thing achieved abolishing gold standard, FED can print money unlimited and still hold No 1 place in the world!

However, it is individuals/family must understand the financial freedom and work towards it. With careful planning, people can make it, but lot of hurdles they need to overcome.

Counter: 20 months above 2%.

Really? If Fed doesn’t step in…

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Go tell Puru. I am sure he will agree with you. Secular inflation!! Huge recession!! Bear rally!!