Wait for Apple Car
Apple might make great cars in the future but Apple is not strong in AI. The technology won’t come out of nowhere. It has to be developed one piece at a time over a long period. Until Apple puts actual cars on the road and provides data on the average miles before human intervention is needed, the success of iPhone does not make Apple an automatic winner in this space.
I don’t know if Google is now regretting saying that it would be all or nothing for self-driving. Now that they realize this stuff is hard, a sensible thing to do is to divide and conquer. Fully-automated driving on freeways should be a lot easier to handle, so it would make sense to get that done first. In my view that gives you the biggest bang for the buck. Then you can take your time in working out the millions or billions of scenarios on local roads starting with driver assistance. My prediction is it’s going to be a gradual reduction of human intervention over time, until one day you suddenly realize that it already drives itself.
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Car manufacturers have been in this approach for ages. Out of the blue, some car manufacturers e.g. TSLA and GOOG boast they can come out with a level 5 FSD by end of the year.
That’s why I think the self-driving for long-haul trucking is the most compelling use case. It’d reduce a huge supply chain cost.
This guy is blown away by the Cruise ride. Tesla is nowhere close.
“if this were a Tesla, I’d be shitting myself”
Cruise is now operating over 1000 driverless rides per day. Expanded to Texas as well. Its pace is accelerating.