Silicon is the New Oil

The nascent video gaming industry fit the bill. “It could be one of the largest computer science industries the world has ever seen,” he says. The data-intensive video processing and simulations needed to create imaginary gaming worlds turned out to require the same sort of computing resources required for scientific computing, he says.

Staying flexible, Nvidia evolved from a maker of PC graphics cards, an intensely crowded market, to a creator of graphics processors called GPUs. A major step came in 2007, when Nvidia created the software to program GPUs for more general-purpose computing tasks. Mr Huang’s move to broaden their use was widely discounted in the chip world at the time but it has paid off with the rise of AI.

Riding the ups and downs has taken a high level of intellectual self-assurance. Two years ago, the bursting of the cryptocurrency bubble hit Nvidia hard, as demand for crypto “mining” computers dried up. Mr Huang says that is why SoftBank’s Vision Fund — one of his biggest backers — sold out in 2019.

Mr Huang barely blinked, insisting that nothing had changed in his company’s prospects. He was rewarded with a rapid rebound, both in the business and the share price. SoftBank, as the owner of Arm, has now agreed to take a big slice of Nvidia stock as part of the sale — effectively buying back into the company at a far higher price.

If Mr Huang is feeling smug, he does a good job hiding it. He refers to the decision by Masayoshi Son, SoftBank’s founder, to sell out of Nvidia two years ago with a laugh. “It’s understandable, I forgive him. He’s completely redeemed himself,” he says.

With the unshakeable conviction that lies behind all his big technological gambles, he adds: “In five years’ time, we’re going to look back on this as one of the deals of this century.”

Go home, Son.

Too forgiving, Mr Huang, screw that guy who forsake you once.

Rejected :sob: What’s next? Try again coming week? Or test lower channel?

Sep 28 earnings. Backup the truck if touch $46? Take note if earning is bad, could dive down to $31.

@Jil will say above is high level analysis that is worthless :hugs: for trading

What is happening is free fall from the cliff, let it be. Finally, we can think where is the bottom…

3 Semiconductor Stocks to Buy if the Market Crashes

if there’s a market crash, there will also be an opportunity to buy Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU), Cirrus Logic (NASDAQ:CRUS), and Taiwan Semiconductor (NYSE:TSM).

Micron Technology: The Pendulum Has Swung

There appears to be an inordinate amount of bullishness surrounding Micron’s stock.

Officially we are very bullish on Micron and believe the stock will see considerably higher prices within the next year. The recent highs of mid-60’s will most likely be retested.

So what?

…we are currently short Micron.

:face_with_raised_eyebrow:

Micron (MU) to Report Q4 Earnings: What’s in the Cards?

Spent whole day doing call replacement hedging strategy, raising cash to over 80% :wink: Need to look for alternative :roll_eyes: stocks.

Although MU should have benefited from the digital transformation and proliferation of data centers but is trumped :face_with_symbols_over_mouth: by the Huawei headwind. This forces me to liquidate the shares, reduced holdings by 75% :sob:

How much is that in US dollars?

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Actually I expect a pop to $52s after earning. However, also expect a pop on open and then slide immediately. So prepare for this expectation. If it happens, my loss is limited. If it didn’t I can coolly close the calls for a nice but slightly less profit.

Refer to above chart. Two possible EW counts:

  1. Rally to (5), around $53-$55
  2. Decline to IV.Y.e, around $44-$46

Not sure which way earning on Sep 29 would bring. Hence, the call replacement hedge.

Was thinking of long straddle to exploit the possible counts but won’t work because straddle (Oct 2 $50) is priced around $4 i.e. make money only if >$54 or <$46, profitability is too low to bet.

@Jil

Any good option position to exploit the counts?

I lost track of all individual stocks, but I guess MU is good for puts as I expect price drop. This is wild guess, exactly like TSLA.

Investors propped up TSLA for the battery day event, then dropped after announcement. Similar to it, MU is being held at high value expecting major break through in sales/profit.

Whatever best they declare, even if the double it, market will drop it.

If MU drops after good results, like TSLA, keep buying as this is safer than betting ahead of results.

On any case, use the highest open interest (oct 16th or Jan 15th) options, good for liquidity and buy/sell spread is low with high volume.

I may be right or wrong 100%, take your own decision.

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RHers follow your lead and short MU at the open with no news. Suppose to be on Sep 30 after Sep 29 earnings. So many days in advance?

Compare to sep 2nd price, with many FAANG and S&P stock correction, MU did not correct due to results announcement!

You just see between aapl and mu.

People get options 3 days advance as price may change drastically near the results.

Anyway, RHers are wild riskers, young and through money at either side.

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/micron-technology-on-citi-negative-catalyst-watch?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO&yptr=yahoo

The analyst also expects the stock to trade lower on the report and would be more constructive on the stock in the mid $30s, according to The Fly.

Insider info? Or aim to shake off weak holders?

Analyst knew?

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/how-to-trade-micron-stock-before-earnings-report-september-2020?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO&yptr=yahoo

Talking at high level, @Jil would lament.

Anyhoo, have hedged the long position.

Low hedge against long may benefit if there is a big fall. If stock raises, you lose all your hedge insurance. I stopped all speculative trade on results. It is like tossing the coin 50:50.

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Screen Shot 2020-09-29 at 8.56.31 AM

So far so good :slight_smile: to $53-$55? Hopefully is not during AH, hate it if that happen because likely to go down next day killing my calls.

Edit:
Sold 25% holding for safety.

Edit2:


SOXL up less than those 3 semi (AMD, NVDA, MU), some semi have declined.

Micron Technology, Inc. Reports Results for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of Fiscal 2020

Screen Shot 2020-09-29 at 3.23.39 PM

Keep’em coming and stay there 2mrw :hugs:

Sanjay did his magic again.

Screen Shot 2020-09-29 at 4.09.10 PM

Micron Sees Memory Market Improving; Halts Shipments to Huawei

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Your insurance puts works now nicely!

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@Jil

Triangle :slight_smile: Break out or break down?

Long 2000 shares
BTO 20 calls

Betting for a fast breakout to $60 :money_mouth_face:

I am not xpert in this kind of technical analysis, and that too individual stocks. Individual stocks are based on fundamentals long term, short term technical fluctuations.

Mine is only with index funds and the logic is my own proprietary logic like mean reversion with black-scholes models. I can not apply those to individual stocks (High failure rates).

If you remember, I blindly buy good stocks when they fall deeply like TSLA at $330, after that I do not care whether it goes up or not, just hold. If it falls again 10% (of peak), I add more.

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