Silicon is the New Oil


#21

You are looking purely technical chart and they are good short term trends for trading. If you want to really buy at low and hold long, you should also look at fundamentals - the way you look at AAPL, market condition, sales, revenue, expense…etc what makes growth path.

NVDA lost AI side to big companies and all semi conductors demands are coming down (TSM, Hynix, Samsung and MU confirmed).

NVDA was my favorite 3-4 years before 6 months. I bought it at $55…$197, finally came out when I learnt Tesla, Google and Apple made their own AI chips instead of using NVDA.

Above all, I will choose LRCX and KLAC for higher dividends than NVDA. Small companies may multiply longer term. But, I am staying away from all as I foresee less demand (cyclical) on chips/semi side.

Like you said “Index seems to have one more push up before recession kicks in”, I do feel the same way. With lot of economic uncertainties and demand is reducing worldwide for chips/semis, I feel better for me to stay away from Chips.

Dividends are coming from company operations, but share price is at the mercy of market.


#22

Talking through me to manch?


#23

No, not to manch as I know his is good at semi-conductors

I reviewed semi conductors and stayed away considering repeated downs of MU and NVDA. I am reasoning why I did not consider either MU or NVDA or LRCX or KLAC when I bought on 12/26.

In future, I may either choose LRCX or KLAC, but not others…that is my choice/preference.


#24

Since Dec 26, MU and NVDA appreciated 28.6% and 26.7% respectively, just as good as any of your choices. It really doesn’t matter what you choose, most tech stocks appreciated 25-30% since Dec 26 :slight_smile:


#25

Yes, I understand that, but I do not regret not getting NVDA or MU. I want to buy only the companies I feel sound longer term. When fundamentals are weak, esp on demand, I do not prefer to buy them.

Had I bought it, I may now feel the same way you feel ==> “After much thought, don’t think NVDA can scale above 200-day SMA.Now at DCB price, let see whether it can continue”


#26

I doubt it.
Many semi companies tried hard for years to build their own parallel processor like GPGPU but none of them were successful except NVDA and AMD. If you build your architecture for only one application, it is hard to make it profitable even for in-house solution. On the other hand, nvda/amd have business model to use one unified GPU architecture for multiple applications, such as gaming, VR, AI, data center, autonomous car etc. Semiconductor especially GPU requires lots of hands-on experiences. Fresh college graduate cannot replace 20-years experienced architect/designer like SW area. Top semi talents don’t prefer to work at companies like google because they know it is not their main product and hence, no long term job security. If you look at semi companies, you will find that key tech members have been working there over 10 years unless company is struggling. Turnover rate is much lower in semi companies than SW companies.


#27

So hardware engineers earn much less than comparable SWE?


#28

Yes. This is typically true.


#29

Nvidia: Watch Out For China

Why Jim Cramer Is Holding Off on Buying Nvidia Stock

Nvidia: Red Flags Are Flying High

NVDA is very exposed to China. Apparently large % of current valuation accrued from optimistic expectation of new growths i.e. not the traditional video game and PC market.

What I meant is not a re-bounce based on individual company fundamentals, is a re-bounce resulting from an expected China deal. A no deal would send stocks spinning down again.


#30

I am not talking about technical capabilities or technical supremacy of NVDA/AMD.

Re-Read, this thread is about investing in NVDA.

NVDA used to supply orders to Google, TSLA and Apple AI chips. Since all these companies made their Chips for their applications, NVDA lost major order book position. These are post facto - losing good order book position from Apple, google and Tesla. This was reflected last quarter results and their future guidance is also reduced, stock tanked.

Investing using technical chart ignoring fundamentals is a disaster, that is what I pointed. It is left the investors to do their own due diligence before buying/selling.


#31

Hum… maybe i missed something.

Nvidia’s Datacenter segment revenue totaled $792 million, falling short of an $821 million consensus. However, sales still rose 58% annually – Nvidia reported strong demand for its flagship Tesla V100 server GPU – it’s used to train deep learning algorithms, as well as for other demanding high-performance computing (HPC) workloads and its V100-powered DGX servers.

Automotive revenues in the reported quarter totaled $172 million, reflecting a 19% rise year over year and 7% sequentially, banking on ramped up production of autonomous vehicle and AI-based smart cockpit infotainment solutions. Growing adoption of NVIDIA DRIVE AGX platform for autonomous driving systems among major car makers like Volvo, Continental and Veoneer is an upside.

Which part of last earning report said that nvda lost major book order position on AI?

They screwed up on inventory prediction and it will take some time (6 months to 1 year) for them to recover but i am long term bullish on both Data center and autonomous car segment. Anyway, that’s just my view.


#32

Nvidia is the only game in town for training. Among the semiconductors company I hold it has the most secured future as it has the monopoly on a key, growing market.


#33

When the recession comes, which industry will be the best?


#34

Recession is not coming yet.


#35

It’s closer now. Should happen in 3 years


#36

#37

I knew they developed their own TPUs and etc.
That doesn’t mean that they won’t use Nvda GPUs in AI sectors such as data center.
For example, the fact that samsung built their own mobile chip doesn’t mean that they will remove qualcomm chips completely. Customers usually develop their in-house solution mainly for price negotiation with chip vendors.
I agree with you on Tesla case but there are many other car makers who work with nvda on autonomous car.
What i was asking for was quantitative financial report which shows nvda lost major book order position in AI since i haven’t seen such finantial report yet.
In my opinion, nvda/amd’s biggest threats are chinese semi companies as other us semi companies struggled against them after they caught up. I heard that there are a few chinese companies who are aggressively hiring HWE with competitive compensation packages.


#38

AAPL future revenue/profit is going down
NVDA future revenue/profit is going down
FB future revenue/profit is going down.

When revenue/profits are coming down, they won’t reach their old peak until the forward revenue is going up.

Tesla itself 250000 cars/year, each chip costs $500, they may potential $125 Million revenue loss.

All these companies forecast reduced their revenue guidance. Since I am staying away from these companies, feel free to look at forward guidance in company investor relations or Edgar database.


#39

Is there a material difference?

How much should NVDA worth given this advantage? Remember buy great companies at reasonable price. Also please remember not to mix up growing market with profitable business model :face_with_monocle:


#40

All these new chips are for inference. Nvidia is the only thing available today for training. Key difference.