You are looking purely technical chart and they are good short term trends for trading. If you want to really buy at low and hold long, you should also look at fundamentals - the way you look at AAPL, market condition, sales, revenue, expense…etc what makes growth path.
NVDA lost AI side to big companies and all semi conductors demands are coming down (TSM, Hynix, Samsung and MU confirmed).
NVDA was my favorite 3-4 years before 6 months. I bought it at $55…$197, finally came out when I learnt Tesla, Google and Apple made their own AI chips instead of using NVDA.
Above all, I will choose LRCX and KLAC for higher dividends than NVDA. Small companies may multiply longer term. But, I am staying away from all as I foresee less demand (cyclical) on chips/semi side.
Like you said “Index seems to have one more push up before recession kicks in”, I do feel the same way. With lot of economic uncertainties and demand is reducing worldwide for chips/semis, I feel better for me to stay away from Chips.
Dividends are coming from company operations, but share price is at the mercy of market.