Silicon is the New Oil

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Even NVDA is copying AAPL?

Is this AI PC chip an all-in-one i.e. CPU + GPU + AI chip + chipsets?

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Apple has seen this miles away. Or Apple is the reason why ARM is so popular. iPhone has been powered by ARM since 2007’s release. Mac started powered by ARM since 2020.

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Vaguely recalled Jensen announced the price during the NVDA conference. My feeling Apple is buying GB200 or worse case B100 chips for their DCs. Delaying for a year, Apple gets 4x performance for the same price as H100s.

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Osborne effect.

This type of comment from Beth is surprising. Cyclical stocks always appear the cheapest e.g low P/E at the peak of the cycle. Is Beth think NVDA is not a cyclical stock? Semi are known to be cyclical stock.


EWT: Target of I.5 is ~$1150.

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Daily chart
EWT: No change in preferred count. Just updated progress in price.

Weekly chart.
EWT: Preferred count is in wave I.5.v follow by a bearish wave II.

Thinking Aloud: Should I sell half of my holdings if rally above $1000 before May 22 earning?

Update on NVDA by Cantonese Cat and Danny Cheng…

DCF modelling is GIGO. Is why I didn’t bother to do any valuation.

Look like wave I.5.v has yet to be completed… need to check chart… out of town, so can’t check till Sat.

Btw, I would rather ride a 20-30% price decline than to short NVDA. Corporate that are buying NVDA server chips are cash rich companies e.g. MSFT, META, GOOG, TSLA… so it will take awhile before they run out of money. Also, Jensen has been promoting governments to set up AI factories, some governments would bite which should sustain the mad rush to buy NVDA server chips for another 3-5 years.

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Daily Chart

Weekly Chart

Correction over for NVDA?

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EWT: Primary wave 4 may or may not have completed. Show two possible wave 5s, extended and not-extended.

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If my EW interpretation is correct, NVDA would underperform (vs S&P) in 2025, probably in 2026 too. Thereafter, it would outperform again.

Hold. Ride till crest.