Silicon is the New Oil

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Even NVDA is copying AAPL?

Is this AI PC chip an all-in-one i.e. CPU + GPU + AI chip + chipsets?

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Apple has seen this miles away. Or Apple is the reason why ARM is so popular. iPhone has been powered by ARM since 2007’s release. Mac started powered by ARM since 2020.

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Vaguely recalled Jensen announced the price during the NVDA conference. My feeling Apple is buying GB200 or worse case B100 chips for their DCs. Delaying for a year, Apple gets 4x performance for the same price as H100s.

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https://x.com/cctvidiots/status/1792883804442435920

Osborne effect.

This type of comment from Beth is surprising. Cyclical stocks always appear the cheapest e.g low P/E at the peak of the cycle. Is Beth think NVDA is not a cyclical stock? Semi are known to be cyclical stock.

:face_with_hand_over_mouth:


Daily chart
EWT: No change in preferred count. Just updated progress in price.

Weekly chart.
EWT: Preferred count is in wave I.5.v follow by a bearish wave II.

Thinking Aloud: Should I sell half of my holdings if rally above $1000 before May 22 earning?

Daily Chart

Weekly Chart

Update on NVDA by Cantonese Cat and Danny Cheng…
https://twitter.com/cryptocantoncat/status/1794760804429967592

DCF modelling is GIGO. Is why I didn’t bother to do any valuation.

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Look like wave I.5.v has yet to be completed… need to check chart… out of town, so can’t check till Sat.

Btw, I would rather ride a 20-30% price decline than to short NVDA. Corporate that are buying NVDA server chips are cash rich companies e.g. MSFT, META, GOOG, TSLA… so it will take awhile before they run out of money. Also, Jensen has been promoting governments to set up AI factories, some governments would bite which should sustain the mad rush to buy NVDA server chips for another 3-5 years.

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Correction over for NVDA?


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EWT: Primary wave 4 may or may not have completed. Show two possible wave 5s, extended and not-extended.

Sep 6, 2024

Damodaran now values Nvidia at about $87 per share, about 22% below the $106 the stock was trading at on Thursday…


If my EW interpretation is correct, NVDA would underperform (vs S&P) in 2025, probably in 2026 too. Thereafter, it would outperform again.


Hold. Ride till crest.

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Jul 17, 2024
Pattern of wave 4 is clearer now. Three possible price targets for this double three/ flat pattern.
Completed today (double three), $115, $110 (flat).


14 days ago.


Few Xers think has bottomed.

Can use ChatGPT to do EWT :slight_smile:

Aug 30, 2024
Daily Chart. Below $108 invalidates the count.

Weekly Chart. Preferred count in blue labels.

Aug 5, 2024
Previous counts are obviously incorrect. From $10.80 to $140.76 is a Cycle (multi-year) degree impulse. So far, NVDA has retraced 38.2% of this impulse. 40-week SMA is at $84.

Jul 24, 2024
Knox’s view… He opines below $103 invalidates his count… my computation indicates below $105 :slight_smile: invalidates the flat pattern… below $90, count is most likely incorrect.
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Two-hourly chart… if bounce 2mrw, a bullish divergence would develop…

However, Puru is bearish…

Multi-month digestion of impulse is almost over.

Daily Chart

Weekly Chart

… View of a blogger on x.com


Mar 26, 2025

NVDA faces both US and China headwinds.
US: Want to restrict sale of NVDA chips to China to stall their progress in AI and chip design/manufacuturing.
China: Want to restrict import of NVDA chips to spur innovation of home grown chip makers.

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Banning of H20s would help sale of Huawei chips.