SILVAR. How Tax Reform will Affect BA Real Estate


I also agree that more boomers will be leaving high cost areas. Some will leave California altogether. It’s been 50/50 of our friends. Not many are staying because of families as most families are scattered. Some stay because of familiarity, high quality medical care (mine), friends (mostly left the area), shopping needs (mine big time).


Once they iron out the differences, I plan on getting massively long industrials, banks, and small caps. Those 3 categories will have a nice long run of appreciation. It’ll be time to leverage up with call otptions.


I enjoy reading this forum to gauge the sentiments of people trying to make money. My husband has said he does not worry about making more money anymore because his needs are all met. I can’t be like that.

We all have different ideological and political views, but here we unite in trying to get ahead financially.

What stocks are going to benefit? Those with biggest offshore cash such as Apple, Microsoft, Cisco?


Industrials currently pay the highest effective tax rate. That’s why I think they’re winners in it. Also, most big companies get over 50% of revenue from outside the US, so the lower US rate doesn’t help them as much as companies with a higher percent of domestic revenue. That’s why I’m bullish on small cap. Financials pay the second highest effective rate. Plus, a rate hike in December is near certain, and that helps them. I’ll prpbably use sector ETFs, but GE being one of the biggest industrials sucks. That has me debating picking a few specific companies. Those setup as fundamentals to create months of gains.


Isn’t tax rate also decreased? Also AMT is removed for most people


That’s one of the reasons I moved out of the bay area. You guys vote for any tax they put in front of you. My property tax rate in Chula Vista is 1.125. In San Jose it was more than 20 cents higher!


High income liberals are screwing up middle class people by increasing taxes and driving middle class out.

If this continues, Bay Area will be francisconized. Only the high income liberals and low income people will stay.

You wonder why those high income liberals don’t donate their money to the low income people. They want middle class to pay to low income, but the middle class just move away


We will come down there and increase your taxes too. Just wait! :smiling_imp:


Government spending lacks accountability. The Bay Bridge was 5x the originally approved cost. SF approved remodeling all libraries. They blow the budget on less than half of them. Then they get more money. Government projects are literally example after example of late delivery and massive budget overruns. I have no clue why anyone believes trusting the government to do anything is a good idea. It’s as smart as giving an alcoholic a shot.


It’s a necessary evil. How else are private citizens going to chip in to enhance public infrastructures? :wink:


We had national structures before 1913 when there was zero income tax.


There as very little infrastructure, few bridges or paved roads, sewers, water systems . No airports or subways… We need a rebuild program for all the infrastructure work done in the last 100 years with a look at the next 100.
Government can help build up our economy or it can tear it down… There needs to be vision and focus in government.


How much of that is federal vs state and local funds?

Infrastructure is way too expensive now. The Bay Bridge was $6.4B. Infrastructure costs way out pace inflation, and now we can’t afford the projects. We can’t affod government pricing to do them.


I thought Elon Musk was going to do it all.
Maybe business government projects. Definitely need mass transit in cities… I have left all those worries behind. Into small town living in paradise…


Here’ What will happen to NYC.

Note the graph in the article San Francisco, San Mateo,Santa Clara, Marin are on there.


The article says NYC house prices could fall by 10%. I am not sure but maybe it could happen here too?


There is something I don’t understand about this article. May be someone can explain it to me. It says that the average SALT deductions for Santa Clara county are $32000. Remember that’s the average. Since SALT phases out due to AMT for salaries around 200K, I have to assume that all these people have incomes around 200K or lower. CA tax for 200K income is about $15K per year. So the property tax portion of $32K is about $17K. Now for property tax to be $17K, the home value should be about $1.4M.

Now how many people with incomes of $200K bought homes worth $1.4M? From the above numbers, it seems to me that the most of these people are wealthy individuals owning expensive homes and somehow keeping their incomes below the AMT threshold. Yes, they will get hit under the new plan. But will they get hurt by it? I don’t think so.

Please let me know your thoughts.


Even if they are nobody cares about them except a few of us on this forum


I just happened to have my property tax bills next to me. My San Jose house’s tax rate is almost 1.5% because of all the bonds over the years. So for 17k property tax the value of the house only needs to be 1.13m or so. In some areas you can’t even buy starter homes at that price.


I agree that they are starter homes. Also, only San Jose seems to have that higher 1.5% tax. Cupertino seems to be just around 1.2%.

Just to get a better sense of the split between income and property taxes in that $32K average SALT, I dug a bit deeper and found this:

It says that the average state income tax in Santa Clara county in 2013 was about $3200. Assuming it’s about $5K now, it means the property tax portion of $32K is about $27K. That’s almost $2M home. So it definitely seems to be mostly wealthy people with low taxable incomes.