So what's up with the BA RE market?


#62

What about Slack?


#63

As well, I think we will see improved outlook wrt economic uncertainty - Trump is under the gun to “solve” the trade war that he created with China… particularly as a hostile House of Reps makes it that much more important for Trump to show that he’s doing a “good job” with the economy.

For that reason, the aforementioned IPOs will likely find a favorable environment in 2019/2020.


#64

If you give your SV SFHs to your kids, there is another (huge) benefit —- all those tax writeoffs you take over 27.5 years as you depreciate your SFHs to zero essentially becomes tax you never have to pay — because depreciation recapture will get wiped out when you die, and your kids get a step up in basis cost in the eyes of the IRS.

Let’s say you bought two homes for 4M and you are depreciating half of that (can’t depreciate land) … that’s 2M in depreciation … 2M in income that you never have to pay taxes on.


#65

I’m confused about how that works.


#66

That method works for investment property, but not for primary home as we do not claim depreciation


#67

What’s your expectation of the price decline? When you see a 10% price drop, will you buy or continue to wait? At what point, will you just buy and forget about your gut and analysis?


#68

We may never buy in Danville… perhaps we’ll keep renting and use the cash to buy somewhere with better appreciation and cap rate… Danville (or the Bay Area), is not our forever place. 5 years…

Plenty of rentals available everywhere, and moving all my heavy furniture every couple of years keeps my upper body chiseled and buff :wink:


#69

I’m super interested in finding a place with better appreciation and cap rate. Let’s brainstorm and find that place.

If you work in SF, why not buy a house in Peidmont? Even Orinda and Lafayette can be good choices and they are only slightly more expensive than Houston


#70

How about 2-3 of these instead of a a shack in Burlingame? Rent them out until retirement, free place to stay every summer. Warm Mediterranean at your feet.

https://www.idealista.com/inmueble/40373744/

Balearic islands are on sale right now! Only up 10% since the crisis


#71

Need to study Spanish to figure this out, that’s a barrier. 10% since 2009 is disappointing :rofl:


#72

After inflation that’s like negative return.


#73

exactly! buy low sell high! do you invest based on past returns or future returns? :slight_smile:

Burlingame shacks going to cost $6 million in 10 years? :smile:

oh, and a massive cap rate on those rentals, european mortgages at almost 0% real cost


#74

Socialism doesn’t allow returns. No point to invest in Europe


#75

Is it so simple to predict future economic growth rates? :slight_smile:

Spain’s historical GDP growth rate, 1.5% max in the last 22 years


#76

no, but some of you in this group just take the “line” for the last 10 years and extend it into the future forever…

it’s called the “realestateforums.net” index :slight_smile:


#77

USA >>>>> Spain


#78

Spain is like investing in Bonds.

Bay Area is like investing in stocks, returns much higher long term even if invested in Index funds. :slight_smile:


#79

so cheap maintenance and utility bills too! even better!

these are rented to germans, northern europeans for 8 months out of the year… Majorca becomes one of Europe’s busiest airports in the summers…

look guys, there is RE life and opportunities elsewhere in the California, the US, and even the world. I guess I am in the wrong place…


#80

It only fell 15% during the crash. What big catalyst is going to drive it to beat the highs prior to the crash? Their unemployment rate is still one of the highest in Europe.


#81

I was just playing with you :slight_smile:

You should buy where & when you feel comfortable