So what's up with the BA RE market?


#1

up, down, same? Mid peninsula in particular?

thanks!


#2

Prices are indeterminate. Houses that have been sitting are ripe for low bids.


#3

@Rent_and_Vent doesn’t want to rent no more?


#4

I see two different trends.

  1. Many places prices are reduced to keep it attractive, see many redfin hot homes.

  2. Other places where prices are high stays forever longer than 3 months or 6 months.

Generally, I see crowd to buy homes are not great except few places.

Above all, calls or emails or letters reg real estate buy/sell are also reduced. Now-a-days, it is rare for me to get such notices.

In short, Real Estate market exactly behaves like Stock Market, some times predictable and sometime unpredictable.


#5

Mortgage rate has been falling since Nov last year, from close to 5 down to 4.5 for 30 year fixed:

For BA, if stock market resumed its upward trajectory, Fed got more dovish and we made a trade deal with China, I think house prices may starting going up again.


#6

thanks!
lease is up in June… debating some options:

  • continue renting in mid peninsula living at level X
  • buy in mid peninsula and live at level 60% X
  • buy in Walnut Creek/Orinda/Danville and live at level X (120%X for housing/schools, -20%X for longer commute)

#7

If I were you, I would extend 6 more month lease and take the “buy in mid peninsula and live at level 60% X”, aiming shorter commute, and buying a home matching rent. I would even go PITI up to 125% of rent as 25% falls into principal portion of mortgage.

Chances of getting a nice location homes, at a cheaper mortgage, considerably good price, is very high by end of this year.

Just negotiate 6 months lease extension and look out for homes. Good Luck.


#8

thanks for your feedback! so you expect the mid peninsula to go down this year… interesting. Are you expecting tech to go down? i think that drives a lot of the peninsula. My realtor friend tells me foreign cash buyers have disappeared in this area.

interestingly, the agent for our landlord in Hong Kong has offered for us to extend already for a year at the same rent… I wonder if they know rents are going down and want to “lock us in” at the current rate


#9

You are apparently a very good tenant. Also they might be concerned that you may buy a house and move :rofl:


#10

Danville is great if you can commute to SF on Bart


#11

:+1:


#12

But then you’ll limit your job options. I think traffic in bay area will get a lot worse in the next 5 years.


#13

SF should have plenty of job opportunities, much more than Austin and Houston combined.

Danville life would be much better than Houston and Austin.

Lomarinda is so close to SF yet its price is close to Denver. Why?


#14

Too far a commute to SV


#15

Ok, you are mis-reading my statements!

If You are expecting a big fall like year 2008-2011 between SJC to SF sector, you will be disappointed.

Tech are not going to fall other than in line with NASDAQ. Tech sectors are second to banking sector in terms of profit margin.

You see how tech rides.

The current real estate slag is mostly related to high price and mortgage rates. It must be an opportunity to buy this year or next year as long as competition is less

If big iPos like Lyft, Uber, bnb, palatir…etc. comes to market, the price will spike with RSUs values. There are limited homes in peninsula and hard to get in at that time.

When spike starts, the home prices skyrockets in peninsula. Better late than never as I do not see FED will reduce any rates in next 3-5 years. Mortgage rates less than 5% (30 fixed) will be history in USA soon.

Think, think, review , review your options. You must first break the rent you are wasting now.


#16

renting isn’t always a waste. Buying a year ago would not have been a good idea for us… prices flat or even down a bit… and 95% of your payments the first few years go to interest (no equity being built)…

and you can rent a much better lifestyle and better schools than you can buy in the peninsula. When you have kids, that is very important


#17

We are in a similar situation. Own a condo in South bay that has been rented out and is cash flow positive and we are now renting a SFH in Saratoga for better schools. Lease is up in June too. Unsure where the market is heading but can’t afford to buy SFH where we are renting. Even if we sell the condo and have a sizable down payment, it is hard to pay the mortgage for a $2+million dollar home.


#18

I doubt it. Usually, if a tenant doesn’t cause much trouble and you are an absentee landlord, you don’t really care about the tiny extra rent you might get as long as you were happy with the range the original rent was (unless you were heavily under market rent). Stability outweighs anything else.


#19

Agreed. From the landlord’s perspective, an extra 5% from a rent is nothing. That 5% would instantly evaporate if there was turnover. I doubt that your landlord’s offer to rent at the same price has anything to do with a potential for declining rents — wishful thinking.


#20

My PM found new tenants in December at the same rent which is $100/mo more than the original rent on 2017. It took her 2 weeks to find them, then I ended up with 2 weeks between tenants since the new ones had to give 30 days notice.