So what's up with the BA RE market?


#122

Imagine all those early Uber and AirBnB guys getting 100M plus. They are now retired and turning to angel investing to fund the next wave of startups. Where would they go? Austin? Nope. They are staying put. Because they are plugged into the whole tech scene here.

It’s not what you know. It’s who you know.


#123

I don’t know any successful startups from early google, Facebook or any of the faang.

You get lucky once, it doesn’t make you better at the second time.

Uber founder is already retired, what’s his new investment?


#124

Peter Thiel didn’t stay in SV! There are many $1-$10M guys too :slight_smile: There are non-SWEs too. I don’t think all will be investing in startups related in vehicles.


#125

When you are rich you can live anywhere. Most of rich own several homes.


#126

He went to LA only because there are not enough gay people in the Bay Area.


#127

Detroit used to have the highest income in the country. Then they started taxing businesses. Detroit thought there was no way the businesses would ever leave. We can all see how that played out.


#128

Businesses have started leaving. Google, Facebook, Amazon, Apple, etc have setup large branches/ 2nd HQs elsewhere. It takes time to move operation elsewhere. Once that elsewhere has the critical mass/ momentum, businesses would “suddenly" move to there. However, I don’t expect Apple to move their main HQ as long as Tim Cook is the CEO. In short, may not happen in my lifetime.


#129

Detroit went bankrupt because the American auto industry got smacked by foreign competition. Bay Area can only go bankrupt when foreign competition takes it down. It cannot be taken down by another domestic metro.


#130

Exactly.

That’s why my statement explicitly mentioned America. SV will always be the king of tech and VC funding because of the network effect. However it may get disrupted by other countries like China, although I don’t see that coming at the moment.

So out of all famous investors only Thiel left. That’s the exception that proves the rule. What about the rest of the PayPal mafia?

We were discussing Okta in another thread. Where did their founders come from? He used to work at Salesforce. Where did Salesforce’s founder come from? He used to work at Oracle.

Apples don’t fall far from the tree. That’s network effect.

In fact, there’s also reverse selection going on. People who moved from Bay Area to Austin are the less ambitious types. They are less likely to take big risks to start their own companies. Ambitious A-types stay in the pressure cooker here and rub shoulders with Mark and Sheryl. Slackers who want regular 9-5 hours and a big house on the cheap move in Austin. :smile:


#131

America needs to import to the Bay Area all Indians with an IQ higher than 130. Will need to do that ASAP to prevent a Chinese disruption in tech.


#132

Done. :wink:


#133

Sounds good I’ll adjust my appetite and get used to eating more curries… :rofl:


#134

@manch
You always describe historical and current situation. Think out of the box :wink: Start from the fundamental drivers, don’t parallel or extrapolate.

What? You’re from UCLA? Thought you graduated from Minnesota.


#135

When you stop looking at stock charts you can lecture me to ignore history. :smile:


#136

Mixing up short-term and long-term!
Short-term is a voting machine.
Long-term is a weighing machine.
When would @manch be able to digest what he had read :pray:

Let me teach the maths/cs grad some basic calculus/ limit theorem,

2014116-11403359-2069-image


#137

Detroit’s population peaked in 1950. As recently as 1995, Ford, GM, and Chrysler had 70% market share. Detroit’s population had already declined by 45% in 1995. The auto industry prosperity left Detroit long before foreign competitors were a problem.


#138

I am willing to make bets with anyone. Come at me. :smile:

SV will still have biggest share of American VC in 2030. Bet?


#139

That’s because of white flight to the suburbs. Detroit Metro as a whole was good until foreign competition swallowed it alive.


#140

People complaining about taxes are missing a full half of the balance sheet. They only look at the liability but the not asset.

If you look at the whole system it’s obvious why start ups still flock to the Bay Area despite the cost. Cost high? Sure. But benefits are even higher.

Don’t be the person who knows the price of something but not the value.


#141

John Miano, a leading expert on the effect of foreign labor on technology workers, has been a Center Fellow since 2008. His legal practice focuses on U.S. job candidates and companies in violation of H-1B rules. Mr. Miano has 30 years of programming experience and is the founder of the Programmers’ Guild, an organization committed to advancing the interests of technical and professional workers.

Author of multiple programming books, Mr. Miano has also co-authored, with Michelle Malkin, his first immigration centered book, Sold Out . The book examines the impact of corrupt businessmen, politicians, and lobbyist selling out America’s best and brightest by flooding the country with cheap foreign labor.

He has testified before Congress multiple times on H-1B visa issues. Mr. Miano’s opinion pieces have been carried by national media outlets, including USA TODAY and The New York Times . He has also appeared on various cable news shows and been quoted by most major newspapers in the United States and many around the world.

Mr. Miano earned a JD from Seton Hall University and a Bachelor’s degree in Mathematics from The College of Wooster.

“John Miano, a lawyer for the Center for Immigration Studies, which pushes for reduced immigration to the U.S., said the proposed legislation, if passed, would bring about “the most massive change in the history in immigration policy” and create a “train wreck” in America’s immigration system.

“The effect of the bill is to replace America’s system of diversity immigration with an India-first system,” Miano said in an email Friday. “Because India has monopolized the H-1B system, it would take over the employment-based green card system as well. The long-term effect is that about 75 percent to 80 percent of employment-based green cards would go to India.”