Starting my own Price Reduction Index

22

as of this morning. 25% of houses >$1.75M in the peninsula reduced in the last 30 days :flushed:

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23

to be fair, I don’t know if Redfin double counts when a house is reduced more than once…

so maybe it’s not how many houses got reduced, but how many reduction EVENTS took place. Still, I was surprised…

24

Have you tried to look a bit deeper? I just did that for Cupertino single family homes. Out of 31 homes, 6 homes reduced prices in the last 30 days. All of them are still listed higher than Redfin estimate. You can also see that they are not the properties that you would want to buy. Listing high and then reducing the price later seems to be the strategy followed by some realtors.

https://www.redfin.com/city/4561/CA/Cupertino/filter/property-type=house,include=forsale+mlsfsbo+construction+fsbo+foreclosed,max-price-reduced=1mo,status=active,viewport=37.33564:37.25917:-121.97957:-122.1167

25

thanks. No, this is as deep as I probably want to go… :slight_smile:

I came to the Bay Area in May of 2017 and back then ANY price drop was almost unthinkable…

So is Redfin dropping their estimates? Have they been accurate in the past?

26

From the few instances I have seen Redfin drops estimates if the listing price is lower. Not absolutely certain however. Redfin dropped their estimate for my home (not in the market) by 10% this year.

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27

Redfin estimate is a joke. Zillow is better

28

Zillow says SJ prices are going up 17% next year.

29

Have enough homes to realize sometimes zillow is accurate, redfin way off; sometimes redfin is accurate, zillow way off.

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30

Even in my zip code Redfin estimates seem to closely indicate selling prices. But obviously they can’t adjust for T-junctions, and proximity to a freeway etc.

31

I missed one week, but here you go:

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32

Market is improving. We may see price appreciation in 2019. Not sure how much the price can go up.

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33

Prices get reduced because RE newbies are flipping and listing them flips with a death wish price. :smile:

34

Improving.

03%20PM

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35

Missing price reductions > 30 days. This could just be seasonal due to less activity in November/December.

36

This article analyzes the current scenario well. The key is shortage of housing, particularly in places like the Bay Area.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-12-14/u-s-housing-market-slump-is-more-likely-than-bust

37

I’ve found the opposite, but either way, neither takes into account the quality of the house itself. Easy text to operate on: “Heck of a wreck bring your contractor” should cut 20% off the value, but never seems to.

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