Stocks vs real estate

hanera · October 17, 2018, 12:48am

47 years from 1997 = 2044. At 19% annualized, price in 2044 = 3553 x price in 1997
1997 to 2018, AAPL appreciated 534x. So AAPL needs to gain 3553/ 534 = 6.65x from 2018 to 2044 i.e. annualized return of 7.6% for me to brag in 2044 that AAPL has annualized return of 19% since 1997.

wuqijun · October 17, 2018, 12:49am

So what will Apple market cap need to be at 2044 for the 19%?

acre · October 17, 2018, 12:49am

You don’t need to know. Index investing crushes RE over periods of that length. On average, that is. To out-perform even the passive stock investor you would need to know which real estate markets will be hot.

BAJacket · October 17, 2018, 12:49am

Need those tier 2 market insights!

This is where @hanera will plug Austin

hanera · October 17, 2018, 12:50am

$7T in year 2044. Is highly possible given the fast depreciation of fiat money.

manch · October 17, 2018, 1:00am

Fiat money didn’t save Sears.

BAGB · October 17, 2018, 1:01am

If only Sears can issue USD

manch · October 17, 2018, 1:04am

I am pretty sure Apple won’t be it. You need founder control. Amazon is more likely candidate than Apple.

hanera · October 17, 2018, 1:05am

Huh? AMZN is also not possible!!! 3553x of $800B = $2842T !

manch · October 17, 2018, 1:06am

Bezos is still alive and well.

manch · October 17, 2018, 1:06am

I thought you started counting from founding day?

wuqijun · October 17, 2018, 1:07am

That tragic car crash will happen soon enough…

tomato · October 17, 2018, 1:07am

basically make re investment business out of his initial investment. he’d be a real estate mogul. plenty of real estate people worth tens of billions of dollar, no?

manch · October 17, 2018, 1:10am

No.

To get to that level you need to make an active business out of RE, ie be a developer. You can’t be a passive landlord.

tomato · October 17, 2018, 1:11am

Well, then, isn’t it stupid to say warren did a passive stock investment? He is actively involved, buys businesses, increases their efficiency, rinse and repeat.

hanera · October 17, 2018, 1:13am

dynamics would be different. Statistically, I am almost certain that he can’t make it in RE. You can’t assume he has the same kind of luck Yes, I believe there are million of people who are as wise and as skillful as him that didn’t make it. He was the chosen one.

tomato · October 17, 2018, 1:14am

so stock vs re wouldn’t matter. He’s a noise in statistics.

wuqijun · October 17, 2018, 1:15am

That would be me!!! I’m just as wise and skillful as Buffett!!!

Jil · October 17, 2018, 1:17am

Yes, TSLA will survive many decades like F or GM.
Many do not understand the EV revolution and the early leader/Innovator TSLA.

I did not buy lot of NFLX or other stocks as I am trying to hold my two winners without selling, TEVA and TSLA forever.

This is another buy (at dip) and HOLD forever stock. I do not think that I will buy more TSLA as I have enough TSLA to match with TEVA.

Lot of people missed TSLA around $250 range. Even now, it is not too late to get in to it, but I do not think any one will buy.

wuqijun · October 17, 2018, 1:21am

Ok you had me convinced; maybe I should double down on Tsla…