Stocks vs real estate


#562

I gave you a chance to become very rich, but you threw that away out of spite! :rofl:


#563

If I were him, I would leave no dowry, nada for his daughters. I would use up that last penny for myself… :rofl:


#564

47 years from 1997 = 2044. At 19% annualized, price in 2044 = 3553 x price in 1997
1997 to 2018, AAPL appreciated 534x. So AAPL needs to gain 3553/ 534 = 6.65x from 2018 to 2044 i.e. annualized return of 7.6% for me to brag in 2044 that AAPL has annualized return of 19% since 1997.


#565

So what will Apple market cap need to be at 2044 for the 19%?


#566

You don’t need to know. Index investing crushes RE over periods of that length. On average, that is. To out-perform even the passive stock investor you would need to know which real estate markets will be hot.


#567

Need those tier 2 market insights!

This is where @hanera will plug Austin :smiley:


#568

$7T in year 2044. Is highly possible given the fast depreciation of fiat money.


#569

Fiat money didn’t save Sears.


#570

If only Sears can issue USD


#571

I am pretty sure Apple won’t be it. You need founder control. Amazon is more likely candidate than Apple.


#572

Huh? AMZN is also not possible!!! 3553x of $800B = $2842T !


#573

Bezos is still alive and well.


#574

I thought you started counting from founding day?


#575

That tragic car crash will happen soon enough…


#576

basically make re investment business out of his initial investment. he’d be a real estate mogul. plenty of real estate people worth tens of billions of dollar, no?


#577

No.

To get to that level you need to make an active business out of RE, ie be a developer. You can’t be a passive landlord.


#578

Well, then, isn’t it stupid to say warren did a passive stock investment? He is actively involved, buys businesses, increases their efficiency, rinse and repeat.


#579

dynamics would be different. Statistically, I am almost certain that he can’t make it in RE. You can’t assume he has the same kind of luck :slight_smile: Yes, I believe there are million of people who are as wise and as skillful as him that didn’t make it. He was the chosen one.


#580

so stock vs re wouldn’t matter. He’s a noise in statistics.


#581

That would be me!!! I’m just as wise and skillful as Buffett!!! :rofl: