lol school kids mindset
Trump is classic bully. Wants to be seen as the dominating one, and everyone comes kiss his ass. He literally said âkiss my assâ just two days ago in a speech.
So he wants the news to be about Xi, president of the 2nd most powerful country, calls first to show Xi wants it more than he does. If it leads to real, long lasting solution, I think Xi can comply. But we just went thru all these negotiations in 2018 under Trump I, only to see Trump not honoring the deal he himself made.
To deal with a bully you need to show strength. Hit his face real hard a few times before talking.
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Number of European tourists is free falling. Hostilities and apparently you can get sent to El Salvador jail for having the wrong tattoo? Why deal with all these bullshit?
These are counted as US exports.
Some random thoughts. I am wrong a lot so take the following as just a random guyâs musing.
Trump and Xi will talk soon and Trump will use that as an excuse to pause Chinese tariffs. Pain is mounting on the US side and soon we will see countless containers stranded in American ports. Local news will starting airing local businesses getting wrecked. Bond yields will keep going up. Trumpâs clock is running out fast.
If so equities will explode higher. Short term we may even see new ATH.
But recession is already baked in IMO. Even if all these tariffs are paused but they are only for 90 days. Business investment will crater because of uncertainties. We already have massive layoff in the federal government. GDP is bound to go negative in Q1 already. Q2 will get even worse.
With the worst of the tariff hikes paused I am guessing inflation wonât be as bad as feared. That means the Fed will have room to cut rates. If inflation and unemployment were both high JPow has zero room. But if only unemployment is high he can cut rates more aggressively.
So even though we will have a recession, equities may well end up ripping in the end of 2025. Of course much depends on Trump not shooting himself in the foot again. If he did crazy shit like firing JPow or invading Greenland, all bets are off.
Trump started folding already.
Apple is safe for now.
Nasdaq will rip on Monday?
If you import the parts and material to make a computer, you got Trump tariffed. But if you import a full computer from China, you are exempted.
This is a China SUBSIDY. 4D chess move by Trump. And Xi still hasnât called. And Chinaâs retaliation tariff still on.
Itâs literally this meme. These people are brain dead cultists.
I have been saying the same thing. Uncertainties kill business. Recession is already baked in at this point. No sane business is going to commit billions of fresh capital in this environment.
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Above comments are like blind men opining what an elephant is like.
Good and services can be broadly divided into:
Manufactured goods
Agriculture
Low value services
High value services & software
Itâs arguable whether our standards of living have improved over the decades. What improvement we have had can be attributed to technological advancements. Even feudal societies improve gradually. It is increasingly difficult for blue collar workers and even some white collar ones to afford a decent house. Two incomes are now necessary to support a standard of living that just one supported going up to about the 70âs. âImprovementâ can only be argued by pointing to some gadgets we didnât have then.
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Ditto for Singaporeans. Could be an outcome of the current monetary system or the rise in womenâs participation in the workforce. That is nothing to do with trade.
But it is to do with living standards - which we are told have improved with free trade.
Standards for goods have also gone down. Inflation doesnât measure this. A Chinese made Maytag washer now last less than 10 years. If you want what you had in the 70âs you need a U.S. made Speed Queen. Costs about twice what a comparable Maytag does. Lasts 20-30 years.
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Have nothing to with who manufacture it. The spec is put up by the ordering business.
This is true. You can choose to have alternative opinion.
I worked in manufacturing for 30 years. It DOES matter who manufactured it. The Chinese will cut corners on process and substitute materials no matter what they agreed to contractually. The only way around this is to park your own engineers on the manufacturing line to bird dog the Chinese.
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These people are called QC. They are there. All imported products pass the QC which is based on spec. So all imported products that on sale in US have passed QC. If the products are not up to your expectations, the problem lie on the QC team which work under the direction of the ordering business. Blaming the manufacturer is BS, if they canât meet the standards, the ordering business should have rejected them.
That is it doesnât matter who manufacture the goods. QC is the one that ensure product meet the spec. If the product that have passed QC on sale here is not up to your expectations, you should blame the ordering business and not the manufacturer.
It doesnât matter who manufacture the goods.