I thought you were suggesting something like Austin is a follower or something like that. Perhaps a misunderstanding?
And such spillover is possible only if employees still need to work in an office, even if only for 2 or 3 days a week.
If people can be 100% remote, there is no need to pay for inflated Austin prices. Austin RE is only âcheapâ compared to the Bay. Why not move to Idaho or Minnesota if people can truly work from anywhere? Houses can be had for 300K a pop.
Yes, I meant that Austin Real estate trends follow those of SF Bay Area. When Bay Area prices go up, there are 2 categories of people spilling over from Bay Area to Austin:
- Those who are priced out from buying a Bay Area home fit for their tastes/needs.
- People who cash out by selling their appreciated Bay Area house, and buy a cheaper house in Austin either in cash (no mortgage) or with more money to spare.
Eg., someone who owns a $2.5M house in RBA, with a $1.25M mortgage. Some people in that situation may elect to sell and relocate to Austin, where the $1.1M they met from the RBA sale can buy a comparable house in Austin for $800k and leave $300k spare change in their pocket
even if they take weather as important factor, Atlanta is better option. Since hybrid seems more likely the winner and permanent WFH 20-30%, SV canât be defeated. I look through blind app a lot which is the techies discussion app. My views are based on ppl who moved to ATX from SV. Many are happy with cost saving. Some hate that place and want to return to SV coz of heat and also complain as the most boring place. They have to travel 3 hrs for a shitty beach. But overall many agree ATX doesnât have infra to accommodate high growth and homeless problem is already increasing there. Currently to buy below $500k homes, need to go more than 40 mins away from downtown. The traffic is extremely bad. May be @hanera can confirm on this.
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The benefit of real estate comes from high mortgage leverage and rent break wherever anyone lives. Since SFBA is expensive location, borrower gets higher mortgages (4x or 5x of down payment). Real estate across country doubles in 10 years (appx), being high cost location, SFBA real estate provides big savings nest at retirement !
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One of my friends, bought his
first home in Fremont home for $500k during 1998, then sold it for $800k during 2001
and bought 1.2M Cupertino home, then few years before sold it $2.2M,
finally fully cash paid $800k homes at mountain view which will be appx 1.2M now.
Except for Cupertino home sale, where he needs to pay tax, all other gains are tax free for him. -
During 2012 my friend got this home 735k offer (short sale) accepted, but finally withdrew the offer as he was telling school district was not good ! I have tried to connect few others to buy this home (as I can not buy this home when I bought my current primary). Many declined to take it, but finally it was sold to 750k in 2012, now it is sold 1.61M recently
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Morgan-Hill/161-Coriander-Ave-95037/home/12178783.
Now, all those declined regrets not buying this home as many are permanently priced out.
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Speaking of people on Blind, I really donât understand the rationale of husband and wife pulling in 400K combined moving to Austin to save a few bucks on housing. Probably they fell for the misguided belief that house payment is all a cost instead of an investment at least partially? Or they think they need a 4,000 ft mansion in order to live comfortably?
yes that crowd is small % (from blind and I donât have exact data) and as you said 4k sq ft is good quality of life for them. They donât care about good food, outdoor activities. I am not complaining about them since itâs their choice but that crowd is small. Also another thing which I donât understand is many keep bashing CA as shit hole and keep repeating itâs full of needles, homeless, poopie everywhere. But itâs not like whole CA is like that!
Not only is the whole CA not full of needles and feces, only a tiny section of SF fits that description. I live in SF and certainly my neighborhood is not like that at all. Maybe if I drive thru Tenderloin I will see druggies walking around, but I drive thru that area maybe twice a year at max?
People choose to believe in whatever fantasy that suits their political leaning I guess.
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Good point. It is like saying, do not change your job JUST because you do not like your current boss. Your new boss is likely going to be like your old boss. Pretty much all bosses are mean (some less than others), demand a lot of work and not give enough raises.
Beaches are about an hour or so away from South bay and I rarely go to any beach more than once a year.
This is the key character of investing in real estate, at least as a primary home, in the SFBA. However, the amount of leverage will reduce to about 2 or even less in SFBA if someone is buying as a Rental and wishing to get some +ve cash flow.
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Did CNN turn into Fox news?
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Did CNN say homelessness and feces is everywhere in SF? Didnât seem to find it in the article.
Left had good run and is running out of breadth. New York, another mecca of leftist polices may be in for a surprise. Law and Order candidate likely to become the mayor. Defund the police candidates are trailing. Oh, one more!. Lets see how recall newsom is panning out.
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Take note. @manch stayed there for many years⌠make your judgement 
If those are the only two categories, prices in Austin wonât go up that much. It should be similar to SV 30% y/o/y instead of 80% y/o/y. There are other reasons for price appreciation.
I donât know Atlanta. The one who know that place very well is @BAJacket
Anyhoo, I donât go to downtown Austin much - less than five times so far. Are you comparing MV downtown with Austin downtown or SF downtown with Austin downtown or SB with Austin downtown?
Austin city is part of Travis county which is run by Democrats so have similar issues as SFBA. I live in Williamson county run by Republicans. Going to Austin city from SFBA just for cost saving is not wise, should be a clean break from Democrat-run places.
7x7. Who say is CA?
Is it not a shit hole?
well, I have been here for 16 months (4 yrs back another 16 months), I am yet to see the shit hole.
I am not affiliated to any party but whereâs this republican run paradise which everyone wants to go to?
Williamson county actually turned blue last year. Great work @hanera!
Democrat vote share has high correlation with college attainment. The more educated people are, the more likely they will vote D. With Apple opening a campus there they just single handedly added tens of thousands of D votes.
Time for me to move further North 
Already feel the effect, road traffic seem to be a little more crowded.