Tesla’s Make-Or-Break Moment Is Fast Approaching


#646

What? You didn’t notice the cake next @caiguycaiguy’s avatar?


#647

And I thought @harriet was very detail-oriented… :rofl:


#648

How do you know it’s not his birthday or something?


#649

Stop digging. :smile:


#650

Woot woot forum anniversary! Thanks.

My birthday is in January but feel free to buy me a drink or take me to dim sum (or chicken wings) any time.
:smiley:


#651

#652

Trading (I understand that I am doing this) or investing, just grabbed stock at $270 (overall) today. Unless recession hits, IMO, TSLA won’t come to this price again.


#653

Tagged.


#655

Tesla will HAVE to raise money, Elon Musk BS notwithstanding, whether debt or equity. Only way they can do low cost is to first raise Model 3 production further from here substantially, show some profit and then BOOM - gimme money :slight_smile:


#656

tesla has come down to this price… many times…


#657

Bloomberg has built a Model 3 tracker. Currently it reads around 3850 vehicles per week. A big drop from over 6000 couple weeks back. Seems production hell is back on.

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/


#658

Yes, no one can guarantee any price in stock market. This applies to any company.

If it comes next time, I will jump again!

But, identifying it at low price and buying them really fills our pocket in a smart way.

I may be doing trading ( not really sure investing ), that is fine for me as long as I get benefited. It also educates me over a long period.

At some point of time, I will change to investing like what I am doing with TEVA holding, and buying only when it dips ( no selling )


#659

TSLA institutional ownership is plummeting:


#660

Yes, I have even published Institutions are reducing TSLA holdings.

Even the analysts ratings are very low.

Ratings_tsla

Elon learned a hard lesson now what to do (keep his mouth shut) and work for company. When so many Tesla’s model 3 started running on road, TSLA will grow further.

But, with this kind of pricing $250-260 range, the price is too good, but I landed at avg $270, not bad over a long period.

I do not have crystal, but this is my guess work.

IMO, the chances of TSLA going down to $200 is less than chances of TSLA going up to $350 which is proved by today’s jump.


#661

How do you explain their bonds collapsing though? I have been looking to buy Tesla multiple times but it’s been too hard for me to figure out how they will make money and looks like the bond market is similarly confused


#662

Institutions could be wrong and retail investors like Jil could be right. Time will tell. Do your DD. Make sure you can afford to lose them all.


#663

This is my guesswork/assumption, no proof, no crystal (no one can guarantee): I give this word of caution as many jump here with challenges or asking proof.

TSLA will not file bankruptcy as they are leaders of EV innovation. Worst case, some one will take over or new management will come (like paypal).

People may sell bond for various reasons, like moving money to stock instead of bond. It does not mean bond collapse (not like 2008 MBS collapse). As the yield is coming to 8.5%, it will attract people to buy …and so on. At some point of time, TSLA will either seek another bond (like refinancing) or shares float or funding etc.

Few things to consider.

Bolt EV, I got it with appx $416/month leasing for 3 years.
Tesla model 3 financing (no leasing) takes $800/month for 8 years.

See here, Tesla is expensive than Bolt, and they make money. Then, why do they get into debt issues? They simply made a vast infrastructure across USA (and across world) keeping proprietary equipment (100KW)/charging stations, massive Gigafactory. Above all, they made almost everything in USA ( expensive place) and Japan (Panasonic). They are not like well established Car Manufacturer like GM or Ford. The initial cost is too high naturally.

The positive point is no one is able to match TSLA standards so far (as it is hard) except GM bolt on road. Still TSLA is in winner post.

Once model 3 is on road and continue to grow, as it happens now, this is the best time to make turnaround profit.

That is why the title “Tesla s make or break moment is fast approaching”. They will overcome or get some help to overcome all the hurdles.

The unexpected foolish thing is “Elon announcing privatization with Saudi’s help, a blunder…Elon tried to dig his own grave”.

I have sold my previous shares at $350 after Elon announced, otherwise TSLA would not have come down, and I would not have sold it. In fact, volatility helped me a lot here.


#664

In this case, the Analysts telling “Forget the stock. Tesla’s bonds are imploding” is BS…ing, not correct.

Do our own DD is the best

Remember, I have posted a stock TNDM, the stock went down from $200 to $5, but started recovering to $30.

When it was $30, they floated follow on shares for $28.5, completely oversubscribed. They took the money and paid off 11.5% bond $96 million, got excess cash for operations.

The company is now financially free to grow and spiking to $45. The stock performance is 1850% YTD, and it will grow further, but slowly. BTW: It is 28% since I posted here.

Similarly, TSLA will find a way to refinance or pay off debts by some means as long as they continue the operations.


#665

More than right or wrong, does lower institutional ownership mean more volatility? Or do we have die hard Elon fans left and they won’t part with their stocks no matter what?


#666

No one will really knows the truth. This is hard to find out. Guess work, what if Saudi’s bought from institutions (they took 5% TSLA shares)?