Tesla’s Make-Or-Break Moment Is Fast Approaching


#809

Using a small sample to make your conclusions fit is probably a poor idea.

It’s probably safer to look at consumer ratings, which consistently rate Tesla at or near the top of automotive brands.


#810

Electric cars have a long way to go…They are strictly an urban commute vehicle for now…A second or third car at best…


#811

Nope, Teslas are fine for causal road tripping now. If you need to maximize drive time, then its an issue.

But for the rest, sure a 2nd car.

So in families, one car can be electric for most households. Some households and individuals don’t mind 20-30 min wait for charging on infrequent road trips. So potential market is 50% of total.

Internationally, this is 30+million. Right now (before any improves to charge time / infrastructure). Tesla has plenty of potential buyers.


#812

Pickups are the most popular cars in America then Suvs

The electric market has a long way to go…Recharging is a headache for apartment dwellers and for long distance…

Only .2% of cars are electric…If that number doubles the wait time for charging will double while you wait in line to charge…


#813

Not sure if your posts can change the extreme bias of some of the forum members here…


#814

Like yours? :smile:


#815

Well, this is a forum after all and we will have some for and against. That’s how we can have lively discussions…

Paging, @BA_lurker… you are needed in the forum…


#816

I am fully behind on the EV trend. In 20 years I bet most new cars sold will be EV. My quibble with your bull case is that most of the battery tech is Tesla cars is not owned by Tesla. Nothing stops Toshiba or BYD developing and selling their battery tech to other car makers, or in BYD’s case, putting into their own cars.

I don’t think batteries is a lasting advantage for Tesla.


#817

Only .2% of cars are electric…If that number doubles the wait time for charging will double while you wait in line to charge…

I think, last month (september), 4% of the vehicles sold in the USA were plugin-electric.


#818

Exactly. It’s a JV with Panasonic, and there’s no exclusivity to who can buy the batteries. When Tesla was having issues making cars, Panasonic started to actively look for other buyers of the batteries.


#819

And there will be electric SUVS and pickups, so what?

20% of U.S lives in apartment / condo. Only a subset of those won’t have (or easily get) electric lines near their cars. Keep in mind a 110 volt, 15 amp line is sufficient overnight for most people’s needs.

Long distance charging growth doesn’t need to keep up linearly with #evs, somewhat sublinear. And not a problem as much less than # of gas stations needed. It’s just electricity.


#820

Their opinions are based on weak analysis. That’s why they jump from one point to the next, no conviction because they actually aren’t that sure.


#821

Actually cell development is shared technology btw Panasonic and Tesla, not just Panasonic. And battery pack is mostly Tesla. Independent tear-downs assess the Model 3 pack as being significantly superior to competition right now.

No doubt that competitors can get to where Tesla is…in like 5 years. I doubt Tesla/Panasonic are going to stop improving.


#822

That’s the old batteries made in Japan, not the ones at the Gigafactory.


#823

Lol. I think i might have said my opinion before or not. I like the car. It’s fun to drive, etc. But the quality is crap. And among my co-workers have seen similar quality issues. So It can rate high on customers liking it (not surprised, I like it too), and also have poor quality.


#824

buy one and report back


#825

BTW with Tesla margins running at 14-15% or so (iirc), they cannot survive with their currently level of quality issues. The warranty and service costs will tank them. I expect they will break even or be slightly profitable in Q3 based on sale of ZEV credits and the float by them paying vendors 60-120 days after they recognize revenue on the sale of the car. What would tell us if they are a viable concern is what happens when their growth slows and they can’t depend on the float to create cashflow. They have to fix their inefficiencies before then.

full disclosure: Don’t have a position on TSLA, and also haven’t spent too much time looking at their P&L after deciding I don’t trust it (or know) enough to buy or sell


#826

Don’t trust the car or the stock…enough evidence for me


#827

Except that the margins on the current ~60k ASP will get above 20%


#828

I mean you can find plenty of places with people raving about car, but here’s reviews on Edmunds:

I suggest you all test drive the Model 3.