Did @Jil change the title of this topic? About time… 
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Yes
This would be relevant if Tesla was a low-growth company that already maxed out its economies of scale.
Reality is Tesla is increasing operating leverage and will be making profit w/o credits very seen (possibly this quarter).
The credits are just a bonus - they are paying for the Berlin factory!
Would you rather invest in another company that is paying out these penalties and also contracting?
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Tesla is low growth firm compared to its valuation. Look at its monthly sales in China. and compared to it Honda and Toyota. and that without any major electric vehicle sales from Japanese.
Tesla is growing 40% a year.
what is monthly sales in China and US? compared to Last year. actual dollar sales.
That’s a serious alternative fact. Revenue declined yr/yr in Q2.
https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/DK2EWG_TSLA_Update_Letter_2020-2Q_G6S6GG.pdf
For TSLA, buy it when stock deep dive like $330/stock, hold for life.
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You can’t be seriously comparing a quarter that they were shut down 1/2 of the time because of COVID19?
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Tesla is currently producing vehicles at a rate of ~ 600k a year. By this time next year, it will be around 1 million / year production rate.
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Monthly sales are around 11K in China. Prices are trending downwards both in product Mix (Model S and X decline) and unit value. there is no revenue growth.
in most of Europe Tesla is below 10% in every country electric market.
“Despite sales data showing signs of an impending slowdown, once subsidies are fully phased out, the EV market in China will still be miles ahead of its competitors,” the report said. “Currently, there are 138 different EV models available in China, 60 in Europe and 17 in the U.S.”
Go for next 20 years and see where TSLA will be there, that is the price funds are buying now.
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Wait, you think Tesla sold 11K cars monthly in China in 2019?
How long before China perfects a Tesla knockoff?
How long before China perfects an Apple knockoff?
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Now, Tesla is treated above par (with local companies) by Chinese government. It improves his profit margin and improves China economy.
China won’t knockoff the Tesla. If they would have thought, China would not have given loan to Musk, would not have relaxed Tesla to own 100% equity (First time they relaxed). Why would Chinese premier host such meeting? They understood Tesla’s value, and welcome Musk to start a factory so that Country gets technology and countrymen gets job opportunity.
I have been telling No one can beat innovation unless it is defeated by another innovation.
Musk has proven EV leadership beyond doubt !
Tesla is actually suing an ex-employee who stole its self driving software to a Chinese EV maker. I think Tesla’s software is a major competitor advantage compared to traditional car firms, all of which suck on software.
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Mostly such employees are at director level in many companies who has the access to software lockers.
This may affect temporarily, but ex-employee can not enjoy the easy money and software is easy to change over few quarters by enhancement and the old technology goes out of date. In addition, if it is coupled with some hardware, it is hard to use it without re-engineering the code base.
Second, Tesla is making the cars at China and manufacturing cost is equal to or less than other makers.
Tesla can not be easily defeated at this stage by copying the technology. Only new innovation can supersede which is tough in that heavy investment space.
do you realized that Tesla has to built factory at most expensive location to realize sale of those low cost Teslas while decline in other markets is much more than what Chinese market revenue for Tesla.
I believe there is no registeration fee for Electric vehicle in Shanghai. This huge subsidy for some limited time.
There is plenty of self driving technology in various countries but they simply not want to expose to litigation. They do things more slowly.