I agree Zeapelido and understand what he said! He said DCF for 20+ years with probabilistic assumption!!
Too high? I just bought $15M worth following Cathie lead - she is buying TSLA after many weeks of selling.
I am a gullible person. All this “joking” is making my head spin. 
1 Like
It is 1999 all over again. Youngsters with no wisdom are superstars that know everything. Pigs will get slaughtered at the trough.
GME, Tesla, Bitcoin Beyond Meat all make me puke.
There is one big difference. Social media. In 1999, those guys are shooting blind, communications are by word of mouth. Now is instantaneous, come with fundamental analysis and technicals.
Not easy to short TSLA, Elon and his billionaire friends (such as Chamath 
and Larry Ellison ) hold many $B worth of TSLA. Chamath has a loyal group of followers, I recalled @manch use to follow him, he may have secretly bought tons of TSLA 
1 Like
Shorts and long hypes are short term. Correct one is fundamentals by Zeapelido => Everything is probabilistic in reality (so you have to multiply by probability distribution), but the extreme example is when you 100% know a company is going to produce a known profit many years from now.
TSLA is fundamentally good company, with innovation and long term vision, became successful.
Unfortunately, this is in over bought position at $880. When it touched that level, it is bound to correct, then stabilized and then slow recovery will happen.
Many here ignore fundamentals and just go behind market prices (as if they are right).
Do you know there is no such thing as 100% an event would happen? Do you know why I always refer to your FA as financial analysis? Because you don’t consider the shebang. For example, what happen if Elon drop dead? Can happen. Shot dead by a psycho who lost money in TSLA? Shot dead accidentally in a gang fight? What if Elon involve in a car accident that kill a person? Can happen. Any company that depend on one personality is a RISK. Black Swan can happen. Is why I am wiling to sell some AAPLs to buy my Primary even though the prospect then is CLEARLY VERY PROMISING. @Zeapelido sold some TSLAs too 
Beware of all kinds of risks!
Elon will probably be drugged with opiates and overdosing from a hooker. Much bigger chance than gun murder
1 Like
Before I sell my Tsla stock, I will sell my Aapl stock first. But I will probably get rid of my Bay Area real estate before selling either.
2 Likes
You have been with market many decades than me and you are asking me such question…
Looks like you do not understand corporate culture…
Answer: Elon or WB vanishes, temporary jerk in stock, but eventually come back to fundamental level.
Example:
- Steve Jobs died, did apple go bankrupt or go up skyhigh?
- Elon+Founders left PYPL, did it go bankrupt or go skyhigh?
- Bill gates left MSFT, did it go bankrupt or go high?
If Mark Z leaves FB, company will still survive !
If Bezos leaves AMZN, company will still survive !
The risks associated with TSLA is same as the risks AAPL or any other companies.
If you do not mistake me, You will get rid of such fear when you really deep dive fundamentals about a company ! Otherwise, you will assume something like this wrongly and live with fear syndrome. This is the key for your growth.
1 Like
I have a planned sequence of liquidating assets in case I need to do so 
Not a joke. Is a plan that I have worked out with my wife. Anything is possible in this world, need to plan for contingencies. Yes, that include losing everything here and back in Singapore, I have enough assets there to survive. I am not leaving anything to chance My principle is prepare for the worse, hope for the best. I didn’t plan to survive a nuclear war though 
2 Likes
Your examples are f… 
Apple has a smooth transfer of duties and responsibilities, those who don’t accept TC as the CEO have left before TC took over. Also TC was interim CEO for a few times before formally took over. I didn’t given a sense that Elon has a succession plan… may be didn’t monitor closely… perhaps @wuqijun or @Zeapelido can enlighten. Corporate culture? Screw it… Where is YHOO!? Where is Packard Bell? Don’t quote survival biased examples. You read too much and believe those academics. If you insist, I got a MBA and learned all these stuffs - I realize they are BSing - now I can’t be bother about remember what I have learned.The reason is NOT corporate culture. At best, is probability which I already said you may not believe. Yes, that apply to Apple 2 even though is a well planned succession.
Good luck and you are right on your own judgment !
Everything is probabilistic in reality.
Apple has barely 10% share of world market. Germany not stupid to put best software engineers for some thing that is traffic controlled. Tesla does not make you travel from point A to Point B. unless its flying Tesla.
They are actually slowly trying to bring more people up to the podiums to show other people carry more responsibility.
Now they have Jerome Guillen and Drew Baglino getting much more face time (including earnings) I think for this purpose.
No doubt if Elon was suddenly not part of the company, the stock would fall significantly. Though I think long-term the company is in good form even if that happened.
1 Like
do I get back in? at 793…
Cathie bought quite a bit today:
Fund Date Direction Ticker CUSIP Company Shares % of ETF
6 ARKK 01/29/2021 Buy TSLA 88160R101 TESLA INC 85,562 0.3000
27 ARKW 01/29/2021 Buy TSLA 88160R101 TESLA INC 23,434 0.2900
2 Likes
Is GME the catalyst that tanks the market and brings us a new bear? Or maybe Doge and the whole Reddit 3 million wack jobs that want to tear down WS like the Trumpers wanted to tear down the Congress?
1 Like