TSLA market is mainly USA. Elsewhere they are facing strong competition.
Should value TSLA 50% for car, 50% for “call option” i.e. battery, FSD, Optimus, car related sales e.g. insurance. May not be the best stock to invest in as many other stocks have higher potential for returns.
The red flag is Elon shows signs that he wants to get into AI without using TSLA as the vehicle. So, has to account for this risk in valuing TSLA.
Jesse’s aggressive bet on TSLA hitting $920s by Jun’ 2026. He bot 104 calls(Jun’2024 $330).
Tesla is growing slow but still faster than Apple:
The EV-maker is now a “growth company with no growth,” Langan wrote in a note to clients. He highlighted that sales volumes rose only 3% in the second half of 2023 from the first half, while prices fell 5%. Tesla has cut prices in China repeatedly since late 2022, sparking an international price war.
Apple is also several years behind in AI:
“For the longest time, Tesla has been heavily invested in one of the market’s favorite narratives, the electrification of the world’s car fleet,” said David Wagner, portfolio manager at Aptus Capital Advisors. “Now, the market’s favorite narrative is artificial Intelligence and ESG has taken a bit of a back seat, thus the historical valuation premium may no longer be warranted, especially as future revenue growth and margin have slowed.”
P/E (fwd) of TSLA = 57 which is much higher than AAPL’s 26 for about the same growth rate.
Eps of AAPL is far more stable than volatile TSLA. In general, more stable eps should have higher P/E.
Hence, current TSLA share price contains premium for FSD, Robotaxi, Optimus, Energy, etc.
What did MeetKevin decides to do?
Agree with Ross Gerber that the amount of EV misinformation is absurd. But not in the direction he thinks. What will kill EV sales is real world experience with them followed by word of mouth. No amount of advertising could overcome that.
“Trump win as a good catalyst”? Please explain.
Since when is FSD a real deal? I can also safely predict Optimus is as fake as FSD and won’t come to market for the next 10 years. Really don’t understand how people are so gullible.
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Track Elon Musk. He takes pain to rub shoulders with Trump.
FSD - No comment, not technical expert. Can always change the definition of what is meant by FSD to get the mission completed. Many people are gullible, shouldn’t be too difficult a task for Elon.
Still doesn’t make sense.
Tesla customers are mostly liberals. Conservatives may like Elon’s politics but they don’t buy EV’s, to first degree of approximation.
Also if Trump became president I highly doubt the federal subsidies for EV and EV manufacturing will continue.
We have to separate Elon’s antics from Tesla fundamentals. If Elon is really doing what’s good for Tesla stock holders TSLA won’t be in such troubles right now.
Elon only cares about himself. He will still get his hundred of billions from Tesla even if TSLA went to $69 tomorrow. His cult is strong.
The election won’t change the ratio of liberals to conservatives no matter what the outcome. But if Trump wins libs will be uber-pissed and looking to do anything that resembles virtue signalling.
Whether EV’s could still sell without the subsidies is a wild card. It might not matter. They’re mostly for rich folk anyhow.
What will ultimately consign EV’s to a niche vehicle is that they’re just not a practical means of personal transportation for most people.
Social media is full of comments that TSLA is the best car manufacturer. So I check the operating margin of TSLA and Toyota…
Surprise!
Market doesn’t like declining operating margin.
