The cooling Silicon Valley real estate market


#21

How many choose not to list at lower price and decide to rent it out instead?


#22

I’m not a realtor so don’t know but I do keep track of craigslist and redfin. I notice some houses alternate between renting out and listing for sale. For example, 890 September Dr Cupertino was rented out at $4750 in Aug last year, couldn’t get a rent above $5000, listed for sale, went pending since Aug 26.


#23

Falling K-12 enrollment in the South Cupertino

Is this a long term trend or a buying opportunity?


#24

I guess problem in Lynbrook neighborhood (and other part of CUSD) is people don’t want to move out even after their kids finish high school and as a result inventory is low. I plan to do the same thing.
However, I don’t buy school district’s claim as it is, either.
This area has good amount of apartment housing.
My youngest is in new combo class this year because number of student increased from last year for multiple grade (but not enough to form one class per each grade).
Cupertino high is at over capacity and FUHSD is trying to move student from Cupertino to Lynbrook.
I guess it is not very clear if declining enrollment is a real concern in Cupertino or not.
BTW, what is the reason you see this as buying opportunity?


#25

Most investors who bought around 2011 will never sell. Rent is good and price was a steal back then. Who do you do with the profit anyway? Where else would you put it? Buy another place and pay more property tax?


#26

Most buyers came here for schools. So, less elementary kids mean less family coming in, less demand, leading to lower price :slight_smile:


#27

Oh, i see.
You think the reason for decline in enrollment is less demand.
I think the reason is less supply.
I could be wrong, though.


#28

Jun 23, 2009: 923 Brookgrove Ln CUPERTINO, CA 95014
Mar 8, 2011: 22330 Homestead Rd #125 CUPERTINO, CA 95014
Feb 20, 2009: 10695 Minette Pl CUPERTINO, CA 95014
Mar 29, 2011: 10058 Orange Ave CUPERTINO, CA 95014


#29

Most, not all, investors won’t sell. Also are these investors anyway? If you need to sell the current house to afford a bigger one that’s also another story.


#30

Ok, maybe the slowing down is true…


#31

price went up too fast


#32

This thread was started in August 2016. And revived in July 2018. No posts in 2017.

So apparently last summer was strong and there was no significant slowdown. 2016 and 2018 are more typical.

I remember 2015 was also weak.


#33

I thought there was no much upside left in 2016. But apparently that was too early.

The summer cooling in 2016 did not last long. Trump’s win was translated to a frenzy market in both stocks and housing, so there was no summer slowdown in 2017.

Maybe that frenzy is not subsiding and the typical seasonality comes back.

No recession in sight. I think housing price will moderately appreciate in the next 2 years.


#34

Obviously I don’t follow the South Bay like @Jil and the others do, but yeah, maybe as @dioworld said, the run-up simply was too great in a short time that it had to pause a spell…


#35

A pause is natural after a run. Most people target specific areas based on balancing their needs, wants, and budget. When prices shoot up, the area gets beyond their budget. At that point, they have to regroup and find a new area to target. Once people adjust to what they can afford now, then things will pick up again. It may not be until next spring though. It’s getting to be late in summer to move.


#36

Well said Marcus. I see that happen to us as buyer.

As a buyer I do see some slowdown but its in growth of the prices. Prices will continue to increase albeit with moderate pace. The number of offers are sure coming down.


#37

When do you guys think the BA RE market will pop back up? Or will it stay stagnant as it is today, even well into 2019?

We’re selling our current place, and will look into renting for few months before buying & moving into a new place in South Bay. We’re looking in Menlo Park ~ Sunnyvale area (I know, that’s a big area). For these cities, nice homes are still getting multiple offers quite quickly, but the areas surrounding (Santa Clara, San Jose, Redwood City, San Carlos, …) have been pretty slow.

The big question is, will this slowness propagate into Menlo Park~Sunnyvale next year, or will the entire market pick back up come Spring next year. :slight_smile:


#38

FYI: I’m not trying to time the market bottom per se. Given the low inventory, we’re debating whether we scratch the bottom of the barrel, or wait till the barrel gets filled up a bit, so we have more choices - this time, I will live in the new primary for years to come, I promise! :wink:


#39

There is always more inventory in the spring/summer than fall/winter relatively speaking, but competition will be more fierce as well due to school season. If you find something you like, go for it. Why get stuck with a property you are not satisfied with :slight_smile:


#40

Oh I think you misunderstood. We’re selling now (waiting for the close shortly). We’re now wondering whether we should immediately start looking for a place, or keep renting until Feb market opens. Sounds like there are more demand and supply so it could end up being the same…