The Price of BA RE Explained Graphically

Everything one needs to explain BA RE pricing is here. This file is too big to upload and, I’ve forgotten where I have shared cloud storage. So, I’ll try one page at a time:.

If you don’t understand what the graphs on page 2 and 3 indicate, you shouldn’t be investing in BA RE. But, buying a house for yourself is fine. :slight_smile:

O.K. That didn’t work. Let me see if I can find my public access, cloud storage. It might have been Google. Might have been Yahoo. Might have been Dropbox. Geez! It’s been so long since I’ve used it, I forgot where it was. :frowning:

I don’t understand the graphs


So, we try again. Piecemeal this time:

The meeting of supply and demand.

Page 3 - the second graph, is telling.

Latter graphs address the future.

These were selected from the PBA 2040 that is currently circulating for a countywide tech advisory committee meeting I attended related to transportation issues and planning for Contra Costa County. But, PBA is jointly produced by MTC & ABAG. Housing is a pertinent factor. When looking over this file, the historical growth rates in jobs & population versus housing as well as the future projections, struck me more than just hearing the statements.

What can I say? I’m a visual person. :slight_smile:

And, this is the first time we’ve seen “displacement” mentioned in a public document. In agency discussions, anti-displacement is the new, hot topic. This is something that RE investors should note. Any new development or redevelopment, will have to accommodate anti-displacement local laws that are being crafted like crazy. i.e. there is going to have to be accommodation or remuneration for existing “poor” people so as to not see previous results like the SOMA development that’s “displaced” all those upstanding types to the far reaches of Contra Costa County. Of course, according to government types, this will cost nothing and ensure fairness for all. After all, the housing of one’s choice is a civil right.

Looks like SF will see 54% job growth. SCC 39%, SMC 38% and ALC 39%. So even steven for most of SV except SF, which is much hotter than the rest.

CCC 31% Solano 21%.

That, couples with anti-displacement which is just code word for anti-development, means SF real estate will continue its skyward trend unabated.

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It’s interesting that they threw in the towel on any expectation of jobs moving towards housing.

Fewer strategies exist to encourage shifts in job locations –
meaning that the West Bay and South Bay remain primary centers.

I still think the Dublin/San Ramon area has a lot of potential. Not sure how more they can do to encourage it.

Contra Costa should encourage more jobs for sure. Especially with the whole plan for developing the naval base in Concord – development should be tied to getting a tech giant to plop an office there. Maybe google needs their devs in MV, but I’m sure they have a lot of jobs that would do well in the exurbs without the need to move jobs out of the region.

The open spacers worked hard to nix that from the beginning.

But, there is a glimmer of hope:,d.cGc,d.cGc

In the meantime, Mare Island was decommissioned long ago and nothing has worked out so well there.

Bishop Ranch continues to struggle a bit since the downturn:

That doesn’t bode well for future uses of the Concord Naval Weapons Depot.

From my perspective, this is only more evidence of why government needs to stay out of the development business and leave that to the pros and market forces.

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Well if you leave Concord naval development to private sector, I’m sure Lennar will still be more than happy to build a bunch of houses there. The bay area DOES need more housing, but it needs to be near the jobs. I like the plan to build near transit, of course.

Mare Island closed in 1996. Lennar got exclusive development rights in 1997. This was Lennar’s first former military base acquisition in the Bay Area.

Have you seen it lately?

I was out there last weekend. While some of the old officer’s quarters have been nicely restored and, there is a new tract of homes and some of the old industrial facilities are leased out, much of it is a mess. More like abandoned Detroit than a successful transformation from military base to modern, mixed used urban development.

Remember, this is a former, west coast premier deep water port with huge potential.

This is 2016 and very little has happened in twenty years.

But, this isn’t a case of failure of the market. It’s and example of the failures of the system when developers get into bed with local local governments. We all lose.