@Elt1 has been talking about this for a while.
By 2045, around $90tn in the US alone is set to be transferred from those born before 1964 to their heirs, according to research by Cerulli Associates.
People talk about America’s decline as if it’s a real.
Facts on the other hand;
You’re always on about how ossified Europe has gotten.
China is struggling as you also point out.
Emerging markets reached their heyday during the commodities boom of the 2000’s.
The Soviet Union collapsed in the 90’s.
If the best we can do - running deficits of over 6% of GDP only allowed by the accident of having the world’s reserve currency - is stay even that just makes us the healthiest horse in the glue factory.
Running deficit and a loose monetary posture is a great policy. Europe’s downfall has a lot to do with its bone headed austerity program after the GFC.
See the trend change in China. That’s the beginning of their lost decades.
If loose money and high deficits are the key to wealth Japan should be doing a lot better.
Japan’s monetary and fiscal policies were inconsistent in the first 20 years after their bubble bursted. It had the unfortunate instinct to tighten when things got even a little bit less bad. So a lot of back and forth, growing a little bit and then back to deflation. They finally got their acts together after Abe pushed his Abenomics program in the mid 2010s and that enabled them to finally climb out of the lost 3 decades.
Looks like another victory for loose monetary policy to me.
China’s example is more interesting. It seems to be increasing money supply but it directs all the new money to the supply side. Exactly the opposite from the US. So China has this crazy over capacity producing stuff that the Chinese citizens don’t have the money to buy. This is setting the table for another round of Trade War. Except this time Europe would also be shutting its doors now that China is exporting cars, one of the most important of German exports.
That Abenomics jolt looks like it was pretty short lived.
“…by 2030, the US will probably produce around 20 per cent of the world’s most advanced chips, up from zero today.”
US will also be the only country where all 3 major semi companies: TSMC, Samsung and Intel, have their most advanced nodes.
California GDP $3.8 trillion. Texas $2.7 trillion
Ca is number five if it was an independent country compared Germany at number 4
But could easily pass it and Japan to be number 3
