The U.S. Housing Market Looks Headed for Its Worst Slowdown in Years


#62

Compare the 1.3M with this home that was sold Oct 2017 for 1.1M in the same exact area. Up 200K in 10 months. Does not look like a crash to me. :smile: Prices always go down from May to Aug. Then they pick up again in September as inventory start going down. Already happening in Cupertino school area. People who follow for 6 months can come up with whatever theories that they want. Year over year, prices are still going up just like the stock market and the salaries. Ask anyone in FAANG companies what type of raises and bonuses that they are getting this year.


#63

What’s the range of raise this year? Bonus is there every year


#64

6 digit bonuses (RSU + cash) won’t be there in a slowing market. It’s red hot out there. I don’t want to name companies but the referral money you get for luring friends to your company is insane in some cases.


#65

By the way, I am not just talking about a few thousand employees here. Tens of thousands of employees are getting 6-digit bonuses including RSUs this year. Almost all of them live in the bay area. So you can understand the impact on the local economy. There is still a trillion dollars worth of repatriated money to be spent. This is exactly the kind of negativity that prevented people from buying Apple at $170 in Nov 2017 after tax law got passed. They believed the day to day market prices and missed the impact of $250B of cash coming in at 10% tax rate. It’s up 25% from then and the types of Buffet are profiting quietly.


#66

Do tell. You wont get questioned by SEC, promise


#67

I wish I could get a referral bonus. I’ve yet to have someone get through the interview process.


#68

I guess the biggest gripe against Amazon is the stock vesting schedule. It’s so bizarre and different from others.


#69


#70

Might not be insane, but happy to refer to F if anyone interested. You just have to pass the interview :wink:


#71

I thought 5-digit referral money is possible at F. No? :smile:


#72

True. Didn’t know that’s insane or not for all the people. But if you have right competing offer, you can get 6 digit sign on bonus.

And good time to join to get discount in your RSU before it goes up again.


#73

6-digit sign on is insane for a lot of people. In the middle of all this wealth, I am amazed at how easily people are willing to conclude that bay area is slowing. The other day one guy in my office (who has been waiting for the last 5 years for home price crash) came to me and asked if I am nervous about my home because the property tax deduction got reduced to 10K. I told him that I had been getting zero property deduction for the last 6 years because of AMT, and that for the first time ever I will actually get the deduction this year. I also told him that most bay area employees would have been on AMT until last year so they would be pleasantly surprised when they file their taxes in April 2019. He seemed so shocked and upset with that news. He has been avoiding me ever since. :smile:


#74

It is. There’s a signing bonus in year 1 and 2 to make up for it. It seems people leave after 1 year or stay 4+.

It wasn’t that they didn’t want the job. The company declined them. I’ve talked to some other employees. It’s difficult to get people hired. Bar raisers control the whole process, so a hiring manager can’t just hire whoever they want. The bar raisers are crazy good at interviewing. I was just on a loop where they had over 500 in person interviews. People prefer to hire internal transfers if possible, since there’s no bar raiser requirement. The person just needs to be in good standing (not ranked in the bottom tier), and the same job level.


#75

Only if recent trade wars didnt pull my portfolio down :slight_smile:


#76

No. Asian buyers are gone though


#77

Hiring internal is also much easier due to visa.


#78

Still hiring strong in tech


#79

People cheer 20% increase annually in this forum and tie it to stocks and jobs… If it is similarly strong, then what happened :slight_smile: maybe it wasnt all rational what happened in the past 3 years at all!


#80

Are you trying to be the bear people here LOVE to beat up on? :scream: :scream: :scream:


#81

They can beat up alright. It is fine :slight_smile: i just love the rose colored glasses here :slight_smile: