The U.S. Housing Market Looks Headed for Its Worst Slowdown in Years

These bulls are savage I tell you. :scream:

Prices started going batshit crazy starting last October to April. From what Iā€™ve seen (in south bay) prices have gone up 25-30%. Then from May to now, prices have dropped about 10-15%. So yes, prices are still up compared to fall of last year, but is down the last couple months. I think the prices have gone up too much too quickly so buyers got fatigued and stopped.

3 Likes

Look at the price pattern of Santa Clara county. It always goes up in the first half and then slows down. Thatā€™s just seasonal. Only 2017 was an exception that it kept going up and up.

1 Like

Past performance not indicator blah blah. Easy to extrapolate a sc house to 10m$ in 10 years :slight_smile:

This graph pretty much sums up what I saw. This year is a little different than previous years.

So buy in fall and sell the flip in April.

I agree with you about buyer fatigue. I have been trying to get a good deal in the Fremont area for the last few months. There a lot of homes that I donā€™t like. In the few I like I am getting outbid at prices that are not any lower than in May. There are lot of crappy, overpriced homes though. I think they will get taken out of market after summer.

If this is for a rental, you can try to lowball listings thatā€™s been on the market for a while. Iā€™d think one would stick. Iā€™ve seen some really good deals in the past month or so.

Well, I am looking for a decent rental. I need a good elementary school because thatā€™s what matters the most for renters. I also am looking for a home in good condition because itā€™s pretty hard to find contractors to fix things up. I donā€™t want to lose money while waiting for permits etc.

1 Like

We have similar criteria for rental :slight_smile: Easier to rent out. This criteria is evident during slowdown or tons of competition.

Turnkey is good.

1 Like

Here ya go, @manchā€¦

Up to date as you want itā€¦Outer Sunset again (not as desirable), sells/closes in two weeks. Sells for 621K over asking!!! Does that look like a slowdown to you???

Buyers are fools!

1 Like

That may be, but they are apparently rich foolsā€¦

Nationwide?? Stock market malaise ?
Buyer fatigue? Definitely less interest in buying on this forum

Well, some of us (me included) just bought and are enjoying (hopefully) the new digsā€¦

Again, tremendous run-up the last few years had to cool off at some point. It is healthy really. You want potential buyers to catch up to the run-away train so that the parade can still continue and not stop completely.

Take yourself. I am sure if a decent deal comes by your way, you might buy. You might not. I donā€™t think it would be a money issue, right? Maybe, you have enough and want to enjoy yourself for a spell. So, is that a sign of doom and gloom? Noā€¦

I donā€™t see doom and gloom. Am in the midst of a trade up. But there are 9 spec homes sitting on the market here in South Lake Tahoe and my wifeā€™s last two listings are languishing. The stock market correction was more than 6 months ago. It may have had a national effect. Plus there are local issues everywhere.
But still, Nationally, low inventory low unemployment and a booming economy.

Iā€™ve read multiple reports of slowdown across the country as well, but sometimes these articles can be misleading as they cherry pick data. I just know for a fact that south bay has slowed since May.

The motivation of prognosticators is always suspect. But the combination of buyer fatigue due to low inventory, stock losses, the $10k cap on deductions, high construction costs and interest rates rising was bound to have an effect.

The good news is there may be buying opportunities for cash buyers:smiley:

I just bought. Itā€™s a tough market to buy rentals in terms of price to rent ratio. Buying a primary is a pretty easy decision though.

1 Like