The U.S. Housing Market Looks Headed for Its Worst Slowdown in Years


#82

These bulls are savage I tell you. :scream:


#83

Prices started going batshit crazy starting last October to April. From what I’ve seen (in south bay) prices have gone up 25-30%. Then from May to now, prices have dropped about 10-15%. So yes, prices are still up compared to fall of last year, but is down the last couple months. I think the prices have gone up too much too quickly so buyers got fatigued and stopped.


#84

Look at the price pattern of Santa Clara county. It always goes up in the first half and then slows down. That’s just seasonal. Only 2017 was an exception that it kept going up and up.


#85

Past performance not indicator blah blah. Easy to extrapolate a sc house to 10m$ in 10 years :slight_smile:


#86

This graph pretty much sums up what I saw. This year is a little different than previous years.


#87

So buy in fall and sell the flip in April.


#88

I agree with you about buyer fatigue. I have been trying to get a good deal in the Fremont area for the last few months. There a lot of homes that I don’t like. In the few I like I am getting outbid at prices that are not any lower than in May. There are lot of crappy, overpriced homes though. I think they will get taken out of market after summer.


#89

If this is for a rental, you can try to lowball listings that’s been on the market for a while. I’d think one would stick. I’ve seen some really good deals in the past month or so.


#90

Well, I am looking for a decent rental. I need a good elementary school because that’s what matters the most for renters. I also am looking for a home in good condition because it’s pretty hard to find contractors to fix things up. I don’t want to lose money while waiting for permits etc.


#91

We have similar criteria for rental :slight_smile: Easier to rent out. This criteria is evident during slowdown or tons of competition.

Turnkey is good.


#92

Here ya go, @manch

Up to date as you want it…Outer Sunset again (not as desirable), sells/closes in two weeks. Sells for 621K over asking!!! Does that look like a slowdown to you???


#93

Buyers are fools!


#94

That may be, but they are apparently rich fools…


#95

Nationwide?? Stock market malaise ?
Buyer fatigue? Definitely less interest in buying on this forum


#96

Well, some of us (me included) just bought and are enjoying (hopefully) the new digs…

Again, tremendous run-up the last few years had to cool off at some point. It is healthy really. You want potential buyers to catch up to the run-away train so that the parade can still continue and not stop completely.

Take yourself. I am sure if a decent deal comes by your way, you might buy. You might not. I don’t think it would be a money issue, right? Maybe, you have enough and want to enjoy yourself for a spell. So, is that a sign of doom and gloom? No…


#97

I don’t see doom and gloom. Am in the midst of a trade up. But there are 9 spec homes sitting on the market here in South Lake Tahoe and my wife’s last two listings are languishing. The stock market correction was more than 6 months ago. It may have had a national effect. Plus there are local issues everywhere.
But still, Nationally, low inventory low unemployment and a booming economy.


#98

I’ve read multiple reports of slowdown across the country as well, but sometimes these articles can be misleading as they cherry pick data. I just know for a fact that south bay has slowed since May.


#99

The motivation of prognosticators is always suspect. But the combination of buyer fatigue due to low inventory, stock losses, the $10k cap on deductions, high construction costs and interest rates rising was bound to have an effect.

The good news is there may be buying opportunities for cash buyers:smiley:


#100

#101

I just bought. It’s a tough market to buy rentals in terms of price to rent ratio. Buying a primary is a pretty easy decision though.