Thoughts on San Francisco

When you are a small country, you benefit from pooling your resources and markets with other smaller countries. When you are a big market yourself, you can still do that but at your own terms. At the end of the day, you balance your autonomy with your economic needs. Think about it. What would a country like Singapore do if it cannot trade with others. They do not have resource base big enough to justify an isolated existence. Bigger countries can afford to be as they wish.

Lol. They think the reason there’s not a major European cloud provider is because the government didn’t write a framework for it.

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Only thing Pure American in Tesla is hype. otherwise Chinese would not have accelerate there Tesla production so fast. Model Y coming in China.
Japanese and Europeans made money early on from Tesla with experiance gain on Tesla projects EU/Japan industrial firms are now ready for there own projects.

so why those small countries attached to China for trade and not create Trade alliance with India?

Because India does not care as much. They are welcome to form an alliance with China. And they can still trade with India or anyone else.

For all of you living in macro world hell . This is from my friend who owns The Office bar in San Carlos … fabulously successful

How crazy is Bay Area real estate… my son and I wrote an offer on a property that had 18 other offers…2 bedroom / 1 bath. Over 250k over asking and we didn’t get it… but we were “close”

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These kinds of number are meaning less. What if someone listed a home for $0.99 ? I am pretty sure the home will get offers far way above the listed price.

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India do care. I just read India want to assemble Mobile phones on large scale. India is doing exaclty the same things what rest of East Asia is doing but Easy Asia is more integrated across supply chains and East Asia now connected to Europe through North.

You may be right about East Asia. But, India does not have to break head with dozens of countries to integrate market. India has big enough market of its own to achieve economics of the scale (I hope you understand what this term means). Basically, you want to spread out your fixed (and sunk ) costs over a large volume. This means that it can keep the entire logistics chain within India. Probably the only things to be imported would be modem and processors which most of the companies would do anyway.

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India never has market. thats why it is assembling parts from existing supply chains. it is not creating alternatives.
There is no Indian power supply, ,batteries, display panels, memory/processors. You can look at Apple suppliers list. its all East Asia/Europe. India merely attracting manpower related work.

Samsung Note 20 Ultra 256GB price in India $1450

The same product in Russia is available for $1100. and Russia also have 512GB version
Even without December Promotion Russia price will be $1350
So India with 1.3B population and world largest Diaspora cannot compete with Russia with population of 160millilon. Its all about Europe and North.

These were never the issues. I said India can remain politically autonomous (and not have to bind itself in multilateral arrangements) because it has big market. When you have population of 1.3 billion you can easily build supply chains (or even live without them).

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India is trying to enter existing supply chains as it dealing with current leaders to shift some business as East Asia will be dealing with Europe as Europe moved towards digitalization so less manpower in manufacturing.
I brought Samsung high end phone example as it is manufactured in Vietnam with parts developed in North Asia. India cannot get phone cheaper despite being built in country that is on same Geographical level not in the the Northern hemisphere.
Just to give you some historic perspective… Without Germany There wouldnot have been Ottoman Empire for such scale and effectiveness. without Germany Japan would not have risen as Industrial power in previous centuries. and certainly without Germany China/Korea would not be in such commanding industrial strengths.
This year Turkish manufactured exports will surpass India thanks to Germanic connection… There are plenty of hints EU will turn screw on India and India wont even realize it if India do not serve EU interests.

India cannot buy Venzuelen/Iranian energy while Turkey can buy it. ( Germanic strength behind it).
Look around few example of real autonomy
Influences are so clear.


There is a lot of oil floating in the International market and India or any other country does not have to bother about access to cheap oil.

I do not get a sense that you even understand what this discussion is about. As far as India is concerned, procuring the cheapest good (like a cheap Samsung phone ) is not part of the economic policy, but building its own industrial base without binding itself into Internation agreements. It is a simple policy of national autonomy and economic nationalism.

If you think a 24 lane highway between Berlin and Beijing is good for both countries (Germany and China) so be it. I do not see why India has to bother about it. Anyway, if the heads at CCP think that using hard-earned money into projects like building ports and roads in small countries (I do not understand the Belt part in the nomenclature Belt and Road) all over the world will open their door to economic and military power and diplomatic influence, let them do that. Nations are welcome to do what they believe is good for them.

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I put 1000 year history in few lines and you ignore the most point. there is no chance of building independent industrial base without going through what other countries went through. Even US couldnot do it without early immigration from Germany and those were simpler times in machine design and implementation.
India still trying to attract to assemblers from East Asia. it is not even trying to built independent industrial base

I agree that building an industrial base has a lot of path dependencies and there are some critical steps every country, including India, has to go through. No shortcuts. But, being part of mindless multilateral agreements is not the route India wants to take. Sure, Indian companies might be a generation or two behind their counterparts in other countries, but I think that is the price it is willing to pay for the sake of national autonomy and for the accumulated learning that comes from doing by itself.

generation or two?. Chinese will be lucky if there manufacturing a generation or two behind Europe.
its not about quantity but complexity and reliablity. This whole Belt and Road is about Europe. Even $2T is nothing to reach Europe on Train.
Fundamental practical technologies are developed in Europe than they are handed over to Asia over time. If India dont learn European way that include languages. it will always will be behind further and further. India want to be part of same assembling line as the other 15 countries but not want part of multilateral agreements. Do you see the illogic of this process?

http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20201028000387

Is much easier to leapfrog software products than to build up knowledge in hardware engineering. There is no shortcut in building up hardware engineering expertise, need years of R&D. Probably why China decides to try to leapfrog in software and then semi rather than in hardware engineering. Not that China has given up but probably take ages to do so. India also want to catch up, apparently previous approach doesn’t work, now Modi tries a new approach.

Modi came into power only 5 years ago. India is lot older than that and so is Indian view of the economy, the world, and statecraft. And India does not have to build everything. If it is cheaper to buy from open market than to build, then it should just buy it (and it does). It is like one of those questions, should one buy or lease, or should one build it internally or buy it from outside. Each decision has its merits and drawbacks. One of the point in such discussions is how much of autonomy India wants to loose by binding itself in several multilateral agreements.

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aka nationalism. Also known as protectionism. Is what many global businesses are worried about. In my short life in this Earth, I noted (didn’t do research) that protectionism was the rage when I was young, then globalization, now is back to protectionism :grimacing:

Globalization gained ground only about 30 years ago with GATT and then WTO. Everyone one realized the folly of this pretty soon. Theories of international trade and how countries trade change with time:
Mercantilism, comparative advantage, competitive advantage, free markets etc. Unless each of the participating countries benefit from international trade, there is no point of doing it. Call it protectionism or anything else.