This video explains why covid19 is no different from the flu in terms of risk to our health and that the insanity of destroying our economy must end. Quarantine the sick and vulnerable not the healthy.
The people will restart this economy without our government . They will go to the beaches. They will cut each other’s hair. They will paint houses. Tend gardens. Fix cars. And plumbing. They will start underground clubs and restaurants. Our entrepreneurial spirit will not be suppressed by the nanny state.
He is a doctor, but he is not an epidemiologist or a statistician. At 5’22", he was extrapolating the 12% positive rate to the whole population in CA. Statistics error number 1, the samples are severely biased. Today in California, only the very sick get tested. It may make sense to open up. But his argument doesn’t not show that.
We are going to get flu like spread. 50m cases sooner or later. With a possible .5% mortality it is only a matter of time. 250k dead in the next two years. That is horrible.
But there is no cure and vaccines are 2-4 years out and will only be 50-70% effective if similar to flu vaccines. They will probably have to be tweaked often and we may need several. The reality is this virus will be around longer than we can outlast it with SIP. Somebody in charge needs to face the facts and come up with ways to get the economy going and to deal with the panic.
No matter what 2.9 million Americans die every year. If an extra 125k die from covid19 it is tragic but manageable. Shutting the economy down for the next two years is not feasible. Would be national suicide.
NY testing shows 20% in NYC have been exposed and have anti-bodies. The state average is 13.9%. That make sense. It get transmitted easier and faster where there’s higher population density.
Despite what is claimed here, NYC has higher population density than Hong Kong and Singapore. Plus, it has 5.5M subway riders a day.
I can consider an argument on the cost of SIP vs herd immunity. I don’t have the numbers, so I cannot deny the possibility there might be merits in that argument. But by all means, covid 19 is worse than flu.
No doubt. About 5 times the mortality rate. But still very low and manageable. Masks and social distancing will knock it down. But SIP with 30% unemployed. Food shortages. Essential business shutdowns, and riots are far worse.
The State of NY has 300k cases, with less than half of the population of California. When California cases exceed 500K, then maybe the 12% of californians would have been exposed to covid-19. Today there are less than 5k cases in CA.
Take the number of measured cases and multiply it by ten… that is the number of exposures
Have you read about the antibody testing? Far more people have been exposed than the positive cases. Exposure is about 50x higher based on how many people have antibodies. In NYC, a sampling showed 20% had antibodies from exposure.
NYC does not have higher density than HK. 80% of land in HK is earmarked for green space. Google the population density map in HK.
Subways are the issue 5.5 million a day in NYC. Let’s see what happens in Moscow. They move 9m passengers a day
Yeah, that’s NYC, with much denser population than california, and with a mayor who encouraged everybody to throw a party at the beginning of March.
Thank god nobody listened to Pelosi on her publicity tour of Chinatown in February . People were already wary of the virus and she tried to convince people they were racist by not visiting.
NYC has higher population density.
27,016 per sq mile vs 18,492
Unless you have your own made up definition of population density.
I encourage you to google a population density map of HK. Knowledge is more than mere numbers you look up on Wikipedia.
Dense cities and subway may loose their favor. I have always preferred suburbs. Now I like the exburbs. My next house might be on more than 100 acres. Nice to be a mile from your nearest neighbor.
There may be some short term swinging back of the pendulum away from dense cities. But the economic force that favors dense cities is still in place. People need a lot of face-to-face time to create valuable IP. 5 years from now this thing will be in distant memory and dense cities will be back in vogue.
Nobody says we should be in lockdown indefinitely, but vast majority of Americans agree lockdown is helpful and won’t mind the inconvenience for a bit longer.
I think Bay Area can probably start taking baby steps easing some lockdown restrictions around mid May. The current requirement for everyone to wear masks in shops and public transit is good training. In reality I don’t think there will be much support for lockdown beyond Memorial Day if we don’t see a surge in cases.
I’ll stick with the definition of population density.