I think this is the correct take. Market is relieved Trump is not totally insane. If market tanked too much he can’t just hide in Florida golfing all day long. He can’t just ignore market signal.
Confirmed by the man himself. Market forces his hand.
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He is referring to the rocketing Treasury yields.
Japan and South Korea are playing both sides.
Only if your b??? j?? is good.
I left my 9-5 job in 2014… I was still young!!! 
Treasury yields are right back where they were before the tariffs were announced and substantially lower than they were just a few months ago. As for stocks - I would point out that in '87 the market dropped 40% in a week - the equivalent of over 15,000 points today. In '88 the economy grew 4%. In the first few months of Obama’s presidency the market fell over 20%. It closed 2009 sharply higher.
It’s not about markets having ups and downs. It’s all about Trump himself intentionally mucking things up. And the only reason we are in this situation is because of Trump. Our economy was doing great, in fact the best among peers, just two months ago.
Business uncertainty is now literally off the chart. You can’t do business in this environment.
Bank earnings tomorrow…I wonder how bad the forward guidance will be.
Can’t wait to see what ‘success’ looks like tomorrow with all that ‘winning’.
Apr 24,
Who blinks?
Apr 25, 2025
Market full of talk that it has bottomed. Rally all the way till end of the year?
I don’t think market has fully priced in recession risks. Any negative economic data may disrupt bull trend. We will get plenty of those starting in May.
I guess market is also over confident Trump will pull back from the brink. Trump will back off for sure, but only after very serious damage has been done.
I think the bullish scenario is this:
Recession will come, but not too deep. As soon as Trump backs off we will snap back to growth. Inflation will be temporary which allows Fed to cut rates.
Much depends on when Trump folds, whether inflation will be bad, and Fed’s willingness to cut.
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