Black Monday or not?
Europe is crashing. So far we’re just pulling back some.
Circuit breaker tomorrow?
Dow futures already at 1000 points down.
Leo has pivoted to Nvidia.
Billionaire investor Leo KoGuan said he doubled his stake in Nvidia (NVDA) to 2M shares, adding to his position in the chipmaker as global markets face heightened volatility linked to the conflict in the Middle East.
“As promised, I bought additional 1 million shares of NVDA today,” KoGuan wrote early Saturday on X, days after disclosing his initial purchase.
The investment marks a notable shift for KoGuan, whose wealth has long been heavily tied to shares of Tesla (TSLA). It comes as global markets have weakened since the U.S. and Israel launched military operations against Iran last month, sparking a broad selloff across assets from bonds to equities and raising concerns that markets could fall further if the conflict drags on.
Shares of Nvidia (NVDA) are down about 5% this year through Friday’s close, while Tesla (TSLA) has fallen nearly 12%, compared with a decline of less than 2% for the S&P 500.
KoGuan is estimated to have spent roughly $350M on his Nvidia (NVDA) holdings based on recent closing prices. Aside from announcing the purchase, he said only that he hoped the move could “contribute a little to calm the nervous market.”
Looks like Trump got scared of the soaring oil prices and TACO’ed already? Moron.
I watched his whole press conference. I didn’t hear anything that sounded conciliatory.
Oil soared to about 117 then crashed to 84 or so on comments by the G7 about releasing some from reserves. Trump claimed progress was faster than expected.
Gold has reached bottom Mar 23, 2026 (after the fact) and likely have bull run.
Looks like Market (SPX/NDX) reached a Temporary bottom yesterday (Friday Mar 27, 2026) (Short term 6-15 days bull run) that will show spike from Monday (very likely scenarios).
Market may go upside for some more time (guess again SPX 6475 to SPX 6550) and at any time (Guessing May be TACO day Apr 6th) it can turn down for final run bottom (Again this is guessing).
The next drop is should be cruel and will complete with a bottom to make a long term (months to year) bull run
These figures are just for watching/monitoring purpose, no financial advice to trade or enter stock market.
@hanera can use his famous Elliot Chart !
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The problem is that Gulf states and now slowly the EU are beginning to realize that Iran can’t be allowed to perpetually hold the Straight of Hormuz over them and shut it back down any time they don’t like something. This kind of negates the TACO scenario.
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I speculate S&P will bottom between 15% to 20% below ATH. Your take?
I’m contemplating purchasing LEAPS call options, UPRO, or TQQQ when the market is near its lowest point. Ideally, I hope a bullish divergence has occurred, as it would provide some indication of potential upward movement. However, without such a divergence, it becomes challenging to make an informed decision.
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For stock purpose (not political), Iran issue is complex and bigger than Iraq war which resulted recession in 2008-2009. For Iran, they are fighting for existence, with undeclared support of BRICS+some EUs, while for US, it is another project helping Israel. This will not end easily and the heavy price US pays will affect entire economy that will be seen in stock market. However, market does not go straight line, but likely expect 2006-2009 scenario.
During 1973 war, Suez canal closed for 8 years, US oil embargo resulted 48% drawdown between Jan 1973-Dec-1974 and 3 phases.
For the current trend: We can expect similar, but first phase will be more than 20% drawdown. ATH 7002 (spx), now 6368, then it may go up 6550 plus or minus 50 points and then elliot 1.7 * (7002-6368) = 1075 SPX second drop. Since no one can predict properly future drop, I am just using Elliot caclulations. If I am wrong, you can calculate appx based you EW theory.
Regarding LEAPS or UPRO or TQQQ, (new SPYU = 4x of SPX) it is basically your risk. The main issue is market won’t go straight line and these ETFs are daily reset.
If market jump 5%, UPRO jumps 15%. Next day market drops 2%, UPRO drops 6%
Read the prospectus carefully. Same thing will happen to LEAP.
You can read this persons message (he posts weekly status), but hold TQQQ (with hedge) since 2023 onwards appx 4.9 Million level. You can read his past updates too.
https://www.reddit.com/r/TQQQ/comments/1s1o1p4/numerousfloor_tqqq_war_chest_mar_23_2026/
Watch this person for few weeks until market bottom and decide whatever based on your risk level.
It is always safer to use QQQ, SMH than TQQQ and SOXL for risk averse slow and steady winner. Agreesive betters decision is leveraged ETFs.
BTW:I plan to buy/hold leveraged ETFs (that is my own risk). I am poor in options, but thinking to take few LEAP ITM calls for one year (not 2 years). Anyway, it is all dynamic for me at that time.
Last time, I took 0DTE for $600 and came out with $120 profit, but end of the day, I noticed it went to $18000. I am that much poor in options. I missed two times like this, however came out with some profits. I Need more risk tolerance.
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GFC, S&P max decline 57%.
Yom Kippur War, S&P max decline 48%.
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Full strategy.
I sold all my SPY shares in my IRA about a month ago and am now re-accumulating them. I’m doing this by shorting SPY puts (over multiple tranches) and will use the cash generated from these short puts to long SPY LEAPS calls, UPRO or TQQQ, when SPY is near its bottom. For the short SPY puts, I’ve chosen a strike price of $540 and an expiry date of December 18, 2026. The assigned price of these puts is less than $525 (which is 25% below the ATH price of $700).
Just for info: Tom Lee predicts S&P would hit 7700 eoy. Recently, he is quite wrong.
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Thanks for sharing @jil and @hanera.
I will probably not touch SPYU. I remember some ETNs going out of business/delisting during Covid.
I’ve started funding some SOXL/TQQQ calls through selling puts too. This time I’m really worried where the bottom is, also given the saas whiplash… 
Probably going to go with 20% allocation in TQQQ/SOXL and 80% allocation in SPY/SSO/UPRO simply because I want to hold VOO/SPY for the long-term and allows me to DCA more safely.
That reddit-or holding 4M+ TQQQ is something else - I can’t do that.
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I believe it’s only worthwhile to take the risk of holding TQQQ and UPRO for a few months to a year or two when the market is near its bottom. Otherwise, I recommend day trading only. Therefore, I haven’t bought any TQQQ or UPRO yet. The market could potentially decline by another 10-40% before the price stabilizes. I’ll continue monitoring the Gulf War and the private credit bubble.
I’m not interested in SOXL. I have enough NVDA to gain some cash from selling covered calls against my position.
Me2
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A technical re-bounce as per …
or is a resumption of the bull run?
Disclosure: I didn’t short any SPY puts yesterday… will see…
This is DCB, market may stay in the same top range few (3-5) days until it touches 6550 and then resume slide. Next few days, market will be down and up without proper direction and suddenly jumps to 6550 or more one day. Last Friday and Yesterday was unique (rare setup) low place where it needs mandatory rebound. Today is highest profit day, I just took full profits.
I do not buy puts or shorts (as it corrupts my mind in bearish mode always) - My strict Rule !
With short market week (friday holiday), I do not play anything - just enjoy the time.
Use Elliot wave and SPX market must touch 6000 {corrected simulated bottom} before a permanent turn to bull run. At that time, I need to hold long (and not now).
Good Luck to all of you.
Next, I will try to update when I see clear bottom day (It will be like last Friday and Monday or even crazier than these two days).
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