Today Market September 2022

tldr for the situation

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Europe is screwed. I thought renewable energy was going to solve everything.

Soon :moneybag: After Fed mtg? Look for dovish tone in JPowell statement.

Tom Lee insists on impending bull market.

Agree with TL that P/E of S&P should be 32 because 10-yr T is 3.2%, P/E = 100/3.1 = 32. Why are there so many talks that P/E of S&P should be 15?

My 2 cents:

I do not know about Tom Lee, looks like a perma bull that won’t work now.

However, Bill Ackman is too good for his company, he is one of the managers very actively working for his fund. He is really smart using some kind of software models he grows his fund. He is one of the maker/breaker of the market, very wild hedges every time (we will know after the fact).

Bill Ackman and Tom Lee are in the same page now.

I started linking Bill Ackman from this video where he explains newbie how it works.

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Agree with that idea but S&P needs to be risk adjusted a bit, so earnings yield of 3.2% on stocks is more risky, yield may need to be 0.5% higher, say 3.7%. That’s a PE of 27

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Dividend yield of AAPL is 0.58%, back to P/E 32 :slight_smile:

Heard someone say, for every bull, there is a dozen bears. Why so many people so bearish?

Fear sells the news, and they are on fire lately. It’s so bad that the market rallies when bad news is less bad than expectations. We’ve been bumping along at max bearish sentiment for a while. Data shows most people are adding CC debt to keep up with increases to monthly expenses. I think that’s driving a lot of the fear and bearish sentiment.

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Lessons from 1929 through 2008

With the way market goes, we do not know where it is going to stop and when it will stop. Most of the people are selling stocks.

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@manch

Look like institutions don’t like AMZN and META.

Surprisingly, institutions like TSLA HOOD AFRM.

I don’t have any AMZN and META. Why should I care?

What?

DOCU and ZS doing very well today. Don’t own any.

Sep 13 CPI

Update:
Range 7.9-8.3, mean 8.1

Above 8.3, market crashes
7.9-8.3, sideways
Below 7.9, market roars

Core 6.2, up from previous forecast

Today Sep 12 :money_mouth_face:
Tomorrow Sep 13 PM :grimacing:
Hopefully AH would be :star_struck: