I think the most likely outcome is we will reopen after at most a month, at least in CA. Not sure about Italy 2.0 aka NY and NJ. They make take two months. Not sure. But I can’t see how the economy will stay shut for longer than two months.
So we reopen say in May and go on our merry lives. Then in Fall another outbreak, hopefully smaller, and we shut down again. This time we are better prepared and won’t need to shut down as long.
Then next year vaccines are ready and we will see the second half of the biggest secular bull market America has ever seen under President Biden.
