Today Market

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We’re already bouncing back. That was quick.

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How long do you want? Coronavirus scare is BS. Director CDC thinks China is overdoing it, so far it doesn’t seem any worse than common flu. Probably just err on the safe side since it is unknown, behavior and effect are yet to be determined. Better safe than sorry.


Question for all the Chinese folks here. This started as an animal virus spread under the filthy conditions in “bush meat” markets. Same as SARS. The economic damage to China is substantial - in fact at least one source I read indicated it had already eclipsed the damage caused by Trump’s tariff war.
In a totalitarian state with the power to imprison and harvest the organs of political dissidents how hard can it be to put a stop to those filthy markets? The ruling elite are educated people. They know you can’t cure cancer or impotence or protect yourself from all the diseases in red light districts with pangolin scales, rhino horn, bat soup or cobra gall bladder shooters. Herbal medicine has it’s place - but not “medicine” based on animal parts. This is the 21st century. With the risk already known how hard is it to just put a stop to those markets? What they are doing is already in many cases illegal since the SARS problem. Just raid them, put a few violators up against the wall and televise their executions. It’s a police state. Why is it so impossible to get a handle on this? This is the one sort of thing police states are good for.

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But…but…they’re dying everywhere. Bodies stacked up. Starving people eating their own dead to survive.
Or…maybe not.

No new info? Just a video that try to evoke pathos? I am a robot so this pathos thingy won’t affect my logical and rational thinking. Allow me to repeat, Director CDC thinks China is unnecessary draconian.

The latest numbers: At least 132 people are dead and more than 6,000 cases have been confirmed in mainland China, as the Wuhan coronavirus spreads across Asia and the rest of the world.

The median age of deaths is 75 and most have pre-condition like high blood pressure.

Compared to Americans dying from common flu, 2019 nCov is very mild. People scare of the unknown! Everything they don’t know is going to destroy the world. AI would destroy the world. Some aliens will come to Earth to destroy the world. Flood, famine, typhoons, hurricanes, earthquakes, … are God wrath against human brutality and cruelty.

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How did you forget to add the two most serious threat that will destroy the world:

  1. Global Warming
  2. Climate Change

I was thinking about this after seeing a Starbucks sign about partnering with customers to reduce climate impact. You have to ask to get a straw. All the climate stuff companies support lowers their operating costs. I can’t think of a single one that increases operating costs. It seems more like a way to get customers to expect less in the name of saving the environment. That or companies want a pat on the back for initiatives that lower cost. It really is genius.

I was being sarcastic. If you look at the whole video they don’t even appear to have food shortages and there’s no evidence of widespread panic presented.

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“The spread of the Wuhan virus isn’t accelerating, but markets becoming more concerned about future earnings and economic growth as companies implement work stoppages to reduce the chance of the disease spreading,” said Tom Essaye, founder of The Sevens Report.

Today is the day when you wish you own lots of TSLAs and NOWs.

I don’t think the market has fully grasped the seriousness of the outbreak yet. It’s more viral than SARS but less lethal. From a personal safety perspective that makes it less of a threat. But from a economic and financial perspective that makes it more so.

When AIDS first came out in the 80s it was an almost certain death. For arguments sake let’s say it’s 100% lethal. But it’s also difficult to spread. You have to be a druggie or have unprotected sex. You can’t just catch AIDS when someone sneezes. Market didn’t care one bit.

With the Wuhan virus people panicked. You may say people overreacted but the fact still remains that people are panicking. China has put its economy into deep freeze. The entire country shuts down.

In six months it will be old history and people will have moved on. But in the short term there will be a lot of turbulence.

From the nytimes article today


That’s exactly my point. It’s much more viral than SARS. Dismissing it saying it’s less lethal misses the point entirely.

Buy and hold and buy more

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Now? Buy and wait? Or wait to buy more?
Current margin about 8%. So plenty of margin to deploy.

Even you know today was just a blip.

Maybe things get interesting if it goes down like this for a month or 2

Cupertino? :scream:

Crap. Now I’ll need to get masks.

Does the guy work for Apple? I think Apple bought most of the China bound plane tickets from San Jose international? None of my Chinese friends and relatives fly from San Jose when they go to China. They all fly SFO.