Today Market

I don’t think the market has fully grasped the seriousness of the outbreak yet. It’s more viral than SARS but less lethal. From a personal safety perspective that makes it less of a threat. But from a economic and financial perspective that makes it more so.

When AIDS first came out in the 80s it was an almost certain death. For arguments sake let’s say it’s 100% lethal. But it’s also difficult to spread. You have to be a druggie or have unprotected sex. You can’t just catch AIDS when someone sneezes. Market didn’t care one bit.

With the Wuhan virus people panicked. You may say people overreacted but the fact still remains that people are panicking. China has put its economy into deep freeze. The entire country shuts down.

In six months it will be old history and people will have moved on. But in the short term there will be a lot of turbulence.