Today Market

Why not keep the call until Monday? Nasdaq came down two days 2.75%. With VIX (-10%) and VXN (-7%) killed, potential chance nasdaq may be up on Monday.

Note: All are my wild guess and it can be 100% wrong on Monday !

BTW: This is for my discussion purpose, but not a stock advice, neither financial advice, Anything you do on stock market, you are on your own.

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Holding calls over a weekend is risky when they are short-term expiration. That’s 2 days where anything can happen. Take the profit and enjoy the weekend.

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I sold half of an OTM put spread. It became profitable even without being in the money and I didn’t want to deal with theta decay considering it expires next month.

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I was waiting for the whole day, but finally bought some TQQQ+options just before closing, let me see my luck on Monday.

BTW: This is for my discussion purpose, but not a stock advice, neither financial advice, Anything you do on stock market, you are on your own.

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VIX falling.

Alot of companies will have cash flow problems. so dividend cuts. that will force more investment into growth stocks. and the growth stocks will be forced to sell at some point as pension funds start paying.beneficiaries. shorter life expectancies and early retirements make that day closer of sell offs.

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@Jil

You follow RHers? Anyhoo I suspect “dump is over” similarly but not 100%.

Please refer to the QQQ chart posted previously. $270.80, the 23.6% retracement of the impulse from $164.93 (Mar low) is a strong support. My initial thinking is if broke through then is down to $250, however it got recovered fairly quickly each time it broke through. So the probability of declining to $250 is reduced while the probability of a re-bounce towards a new ATH has increased. However, I am not sure because today it didn’t close above 50-day SMA ($271.38), and worse close below the 23.6% retracement ($270.80).

The bulls won’t want to hear this, but the market could have a date soon for a good old-fashioned washout.

My current thinking is market would bottom before Nov 4 election and would rally regardless who is the next POTUS.

You may be fairly correct, but market does not go straight down, but with UPs and Downs. Since QQQ hit 50-day SMA, there is a resistance level to bring up. If there is 2% up,from 10.75% bottom, it means 6% with TQQQ. I want to take advantage of one jump by swing, almost 90% in by the end of close yesterday!

I do not follow RHers. If I do, I will end up in losses. I follow my own analysis, I was waiting for the whole week in cash mode, but finally bought TQQQ+options just before closing when VIX/VXN brought down to Pre-drop level. Hope I gain, but next 2-3 days will tell me soon.

If there is further dip, I hope that I can spot before the fall. This is the strong hope that drives me to get in now.

BTW: All are my wild guess and it can be 100% wrong on Monday ! This is for my discussion purpose, but not a stock advice, neither financial advice, Anything you do on stock market, you are on your own.

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TQQQ + QQQ calls right? IV of TQQQ calls are very high and two days of theta decay is no fun.

The correct word is greed :zipper_mouth_face:

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Correct ! But, it is risky and I do not know the outcome until Monday closing.

Pre-Market way up , hope it holds till end of tomorrow!

Here we go again :+1:t2: Greens!

Instead of 10%, could have been a double :sob:

:+1:t2:

Algorithm or instinct?

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I could not have achieved this accuracy without algorithm. Algorithm helped me to some extend, but I reviewed almost 10-15 times manually to make sure I am right. It was stressful day for me, esp Friday last 10 mins, and 15 mins after market.

This time I was lucky that my algorithm gave me 99.89% probability of top (just before fall) and 78% probability of bottom. It was hard for me to decide with 78% chances of bottom, but manual review (judgement) helped.

I was 100% confident on the fall side, but not so good clarity on finding bottom. I have to revise my logic based on the situation for better accuracy.

This is the way I beat the market since Jan 2018 onwards, but it is getting harder and harder.

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Use EWT! I also have TQQQ and QQQ calls :money_mouth_face:

Screen Shot 2020-09-14 at 10.08.42 AM

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You made risky bet of 09/18 expiry, but I made QQQ 275 , 10/16 expiry which has 30% profit. 09/18 is so close within 7 days, but a good choice.

Second, you see how big jump TSLA made 330 to 400 now, 21% jump. I should have bought a call when it was $330 , missed it !

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Opendoor is going public with Chamath’s help

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3614048-opendoor-coming-public-via-merger-chamath-palihapitiyas-spac

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I don’t read it as taking open door public. It’s sorta like a private equity deal but the weird thing is that the private equity itself is public.

Edit: OK, I see what they are doing. Scratch my comments above. It’s taking Opendoor public by merging it with the shell IPOB.

Tech mixed.

Industrials and semis are doing well.

@Jil

Cut loss or add QQQ/ TQQQ?

I had sold covered calls vs $270 calls. Get initial capital back but limit gain.

Current sentiments: Hold TQQQ. Wonder whether to long more QQQ calls. Added some QQQ calls.