I have become swing trader, not watching Amazon at least now, until my algorithm says buy.
Since I am skeptical in the long run, due to yield curve inversion, I moved to swing trade not invest.I have my own algorithm with which I can make appx 28% YOY returns. Most of my money will be in SPY, ONEQ, UPRO and UVXY rather than individual stocks. I rarely take a position in stocks. This is very reliable and trust-able source for me. I hold SPY as it was triggered by recently.
This way, I am not concerned about recession, this swing trade will give me positive results no matter whether it is up or down.
Index ETFs are pretty good for day and swing trades. Very high liquidity. Thought of doing so but donāt have the discipline to monitor closely, so prefer buy n hold through ebbs and flows.
Yes, that too with forward looking with SPY or VOO, i.e, buy at dip and sell at peak, stay cash until next dip. Volatility increases returns.
I am still scared with my results as it is giving me such results. Still I am unable pinpoint exact top or bottom.
For example: I bought NLY today (5% only) at $8.20 as yesterday my algorithm gave me possible bottom. I need to hold it until it says peak sell. I do not have and confidence on NLY, as it is fundamentally week at this stage, but I bought it just trusting algorithm. This is my live test case.
Iāll sayā¦ thatā¦ if you have solved the above highlighted consistently over long term, you can become the richest person in the world(assuming you havenāt become already).
wellā¦ such skills are extremely unique, and such individuals generally do that full time. Maybe you do that full time, I donāt know. Also other people queue up to invest their own money with such individuals.
Impressive for a huge portfolio. Occasionally achieve that when the portfolio is small. @manch achieved 300% yoy once. Talking about stock portfolio not just a single stock.
With good luck, can be achieved using a buy n hold strategy. My AAPL* investment since 1997 (return of SJ) is running at >30% annualized return despite all the huge ups and downs. That is 22 years If youāve jumped into cloud and AI stocks 5 years ago, would be way moreā¦ double every year.
33% annualized & collect $3.08 dividends/year (about 3.4x of initial capital), doing absolutely nothing, just buy and forget.
I have always believed can use quantitative analysis and pattern recognition to trade/invest stocks, just not good enough
According to The Wall Street Journal in May 2009, Simons was questioned by investors on the dramatic performance gap of Renaissance Technologiesā portfolios. The Medallion Fund, which has been available exclusively to current and past employees and their families, surged 80% in 2008 in spite of hefty fees; the Renaissance Institutional Equities Fund (RIEF), owned by outsiders, lost money in both 2008 and 2009; RIEF declined 16% in 2008.
On July 22, 2014, Simons was subject to bipartisan condemnation by the U.S. Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations for the use of complex barrier options to shield day-to-day trading (usually subject to higher ordinary income tax rates) as long-term capital gains.
ONLY with good luck and using buy n hold strategy itās possible . However that too only long term. i.e. by letting time average out volatility. i.e. Someone nearing retirement and needing this money even this strategy is not advisable, i.e. they need to liquidate the money needed short term @3 -5 years and get into cash .
Having said that while an AAPL has gone up tremendously, other big companies at that time such as HP(where Jobs and Wozniack interned) are down, so if you had your money in HP or such big ones like HP, one is screwed. Point is the hold part of ābuy n holdā works in special cases.
Why is Mr Market goes into bad mood again?
Stop stealing my $$$!
Many debates on this. Sound like you are talking about people without passive income or their passive income is not sufficient hence has to liquidate principal.
The issue now is interest rates are pathetic. It used to be asset allocation would move more to bonds as someone neared retirement. Now you can get blue chip stocks where the dividend yield is higher the bonds and savings account interest rates. It really punishes savers who want to generate a reliable income in retirement.
I think itās a buy if the plan to negotiate is serious. Iām sure there will be dips between now and the start of negotiations. Iād buy the dips. If you think the rally wonāt last, buy some puts in Lyft. The chart is terrible and lockup has expired. Etsy is in free fall too.
I sold some before the recent dip, thinking to grab at cheaper prices, China and USA act too fast, if buy now means at higher price. Damn. Now I have to wait for Trump to tweet some negative news.
The most exciting news is weāre finally seeing some serious differentiation among cloud stocks and recent IPOs. They were moving together as a group. Now they are starting to separate into winners and losers. There are tons of opportunities now.
I have a screener for 13 week lows to find dogs and 13 week highs for a long list. It generates ideas that then check. I mostly focus on tech names. Lately, I stay 50/50 in the number of call vs put trades but the put trades are 50% of the size. Iām biased long.
If youāve jumped into cloud and AI stocks 5 years ago, would be way moreā¦ double every year.
