Today Market

I agree. We’re off today’s lows but below the 200-day. Until we re-establish above it, Monday was just a DCB. 284.82 is support from October low, and 304.57 is resistance.

Ok my bad.

Bought small portions of VOO, DAL and BRK.B today. Saving some powder for whatever happens next.

Fear index back to 9. May need to go all the way to 1.

What is the rationale for buying BRK.B when their annual return is lower than VOO for the past few years, you have evidences that it will improve with a new successor? TBH, I bought some too for my children’s account, is for getting discount for auto insurance from GEICO :slight_smile:

Going by some valuation analysis.

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BRK drop may be less than SPY drop.

You know BRK too good at correction/recession period as they buy more companies during disaster.

BRK filing Form 4 DAL is an indication that they bottom fish now and SPY is lower end now.

True, but keep in mind DAL is at 52 week lows.

How do you know I am thinking of this too :grimacing:?

BRK tends to underperform SPY during late bull market and perform better during bear market and early bull market.

I do not know how much you handle from your portfolio, assuming some 7 figure level. Normally, you stay with AAPL, you are lucky and safer as this is proven stock.

If you really want to manage multi-billions, it is too big a task on asset allocation and winning over SPY. This is the issue with BRK, but they are conservative, but not aggressive to buy companies like TSLA or BYND.

The BRK cash flow is too high as he holds 2/3rd of companies in private and 1/3rd in public.

The only benefit of SPY (VOO) is broad market (500) investment bigger than BRK (around 150+ companies).

Second, if you see overall S&P P/E and BRK P/E, Berkshire wins. If you invest case $10k now, in 6.3 years, you get the $10k back, but SPY you need to wait long.

They follow very standard methodology of 30% cash on hand and 70% investments. When correction period comes, they will have strong money power to buy. This is John Kelly criteria for asset allocation which is applicable for higher money.

Other risk is how new comers will manage after current heads.

If I want buy/hold, I would prefer BRK than SPY simply by using P/E measure.

Market is clearly pricing BRK with conservative look. SPY(VOO) is good with more volume and liquidity.

Do we have the same goal for a buy n hold portfolio? My goal is to be inherited and pass along for generations. So P/E is less relevant to me, sustainability is.

Apple now down 4% and Facebook down almost 6. If they can’t get Seattle under control we are staring at the abyss.

Policy differs !

I do not believe market pricing is correct at all times, but believe in P/E as this is coming out of company operations. Berkshire Cash flow is too good, as cash flow accumulates in company books, market has to price it.

At this stage, I may not have buy/hold policy as my main idea is growth at my retirement account where tax is not deducted during sale. My aim is to maximize my per year return as aggressive as possible. This is actual test for my program, in real life field, and I want to improve the accuracy further and further. Otherwise, it is easy for me to put the money into few nice stocks, hold long which I won’t do it.

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ego :joy:

Too much info :scream:

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Ha ha ha ! It is true that I test my program, no ego ! I fail by my own greediness, but not by the program even though it has bugs. I do not read any news for buying/selling stocks, but read for fundamental news alone.

Even now, I can fairly say we are at near bottom (may be last Friday was lowest) as no one can 100% clearly catch the bottom or Top.

IMO, news/media are just following what market is doing. Market makers deliberately bring down the stocks to scare everyone to sell so that they can buy at discount ! This is pure market makers gamble !

See yesterday and today, what happened?

Yesterday jump was 4.5-5% when FED did not tell how much rate cut. If Corona Virus is real issue, it would not have jumped 4.5-5%.

Today, it fell very heavily after 0.50% rate cut. Yesterday stocks went up and FED rate cut today, everyone expects to go up and buys the stocks with FOMO, market makers brings down market today scaring everyone. These are HFT market players, bring up and down.

Giving 0.50 extra-ordinary rate cut is very positive, but they pricing wrongly (deliberately opposite).

Fundamentally positive changes, market wrongly pricing, will not be seen by common scared investors and that drop will not long last. The way AMZN, GOOGL came back, market will grow further, but slowly depending on quarterly results.

Many News/Media stories, for today market drop, are all BS !

BTW: This is again my own analysis and no one should trust this.

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Can trust but probably can’t exploit. My best course of action is and has always been Do Nothing - hallmark of a buy n hold (hopefully forever) investor.

You would never be one, from your posts, you don’t have the nature for buy n hold. The necessary personality is slow to make decision and lazy to take action.

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Relief rally that Bernie won’t be the nominee.

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Even if he comes, IMO, Trump wins !!!

He comes next

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Bloomberg drops out and endorses Biden. Now the market can rally away.