Trading wars impact

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3479274-cleveland-cliffs-reports-record-high-q2-sales-volume-4-percent-revenue-bump

When will the stupid people realize somebody is playing with them? :joy::joy::joy:
For about 1-1/2 year, the stock market has been playing to the drums of who? Stock market should surpassing the 30,000 by now.

But we have the mumbling jumbling president playing inside trading…:joy::joy::joy:

If you know more than the farmers getting a $24 BILLION socialist handout, call me. :joy::joy::joy:

American farmer: Trumpovich ‘took away all of our markets’

The White House recently announced that it would be providing an additional $16 billion in aid to American farmers affected by the trade war between the U.S. and China.

But the problem for American farmers has becomes bigger than something a bailout can fix.

“This trade thing is what’s brought on by the president and it’s really frustrating because he took away all of our markets,” Bob Nuylen, a farmer from North Dakota who grows spring wheat and sunflowers, told Yahoo Finance. “We live in an area where we’re kind of in the middle of nowhere. It costs us a lot of money — over $1 a bushel to get our grain to markets.”

‘As low as I’ve seen them in a long time’

Since trade tensions began in 2018, farmers have faced major financial challenges, since China was once a major U.S. agriculture buyer.

And losing customers has become a major issue. have been dealing with this, as China has turned to other countries like Brazil for soybeans. Nuylen said this is also happening for wheat farmers, as China has begun importing wheat from Russian regions.

“All these countries went to different countries to get their grain,” Nuylen said. “How are we going to get the relations back with them to buy our grain again and be our customers?”

Between 2016-2017, China was the fourth-largest (Canadian wheat sales to China hit 14-year high despite dispute, displacing U.S. shipments | Financial Post) wheat buyer in the world, importing more than 61 million U.S. bushels. In 2019, the top U.S. export destinations for wheat include Mexico, the Philippines, Japan, and Nigeria — China is not even among the top 10.

“Our prices are probably as low as I’ve seen them in a long time,” he told Yahoo Finance. “We were losing just about $70 an acre just by putting our crop in [the ground] this spring.”

While a deal between the U.S. and China would take months to be reached, farmers are remaining “cautiously optimistic,” Glenn Brunkow, a Kansas-based corn and soybean farmer said.

“Our hope is that the playing field is leveled up and these tariffs on the other side are taken away,” Brunkow said. “We feel like with the technology we have, the advantages we have, we can produce the crops as economically as anyone else in the whole world.”

The average American is doing better. Wage growth is over 3%. The labor force is at an all-time high (rate could still go higher). Consumers are spending too. Our economy is consumer led with 70% being consumer spending. These are all good long-term trends.

Manufacturing jobs are still gaining.

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The First World Trade War is coming. US, China, Japan, South Korea, Britain, Europe.

Trade war is better than real war.

Trump’s former advisor on trade war. He’s the president of Goldman Sachs

I don’t think anyone has argued tariffs are good long-term. They should be a short-term tool to get trade deals that are much more fair. We should pick these battles one at a time vs fighting on multiple fronts.

US Treasury designates China as a currency manipulator

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/05/us-treasury-designates-china-as-a-currency-manipulator.html

The irony is that China has been manipulating its currency to pop it up. Yuan should be much weaker than the current level because of its economic prospect. China has been spending its USD reserve to pop it up thus far.

Mnuchin had warned in June that China could be designated a currency manipulator if it stopped intervening to prop up its currency. “It’s not coincidental in my mind that the currency has moved from approximately 6.30 to 6.90” to the dollar, he said June 8 after a Group of 20 meeting in Fukuoka, Japan.

:rofl:

U.S. Labels China a Currency Manipulator, Escalating Trade War

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-05/u-s-treasury-department-labels-china-a-currency-manipulator

Oh the irony that the last president to do this was Clinton. Honestly, super low minimum wage and lack of environment laws do far more than any currency variation.

Tariff wars, the 401Kers must be loving it!
:joy:

Good twitter thread on the yuan depreciation:

I have no idea whether China artificially suppressed the yuan in the Clinton years. Maybe it did. But it clearly did NOT do that in the last two to three years. It has been spending huge amount of its USD reserves to fight the down trend, and cramp down hard on capital outflow. Now that China is letting go a little bit of its support and look and behold the yuan falls.

A much weaker yuan is bad for China’s long term future, that’s why it has been proping it up. Trump’s reckless escalation changed their calculation. China still can’t afford too much depreciation. Maybe Trump wants China to totally let go and have yuan fall 20%? :thinking:

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If the Yuan falls enough, then it offsets the tariffs while China will have to pay more for anything it imports.

Both sides are locked into a ruinous cycle. Trump made plenty of bad decisions, including the first move to use tariff as a weapon. Xi also made his share of bad decisions. Bad in the sense that it will hurt China’s long term economic prospects, but he may have made the calculation that the other options are worse for his own political future.

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Blah,blah, blah.

The Fuhrer has ruined the US.

Bartender, serve us another round of SOCIALIST HANDOUTS for the farmers. :slightly_smiling_face:

:scream: :scream: :scream:

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Recessions is not fun for anybody. We all have assets and their value will drop. Our income will fall too. Maybe if you are like WB who has 120B cash sitting on the sideline then it will be good?

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