True. I am glad you admitted it finally.
Iâm messing with marcus. Youâre not an American? Pakistani?
You can do better.
As an American I have no problem accepting Americaâs past or present. But for some reason Chinese origin posters are super defensive when it comes to China.
Ironduke,
Say whatever, I donât follow whatever issues you raised that closely, in fact, I was reading it after you mentioned them. Based on what I glanced through, I realize you could have the wrong perception. As I said again, infrastructure needs to be built first. The goal of BR is long term. If you insist to focus on short-term, I canât help it. Short-term, some1 gain? I am too lazy to dig into. From the way you talked, I believe youâre not a Caucasian. Btw, still donât know why you come to that conclusion, my guess is from reading articles. Whatever, too lazy to dig.
Belt and road is not about exports from China. To say that is seriously underestimating Xi. This is his signature legacy initiative, something he wants to be remembered in the history book. To say itâs about exporting some more concrete from China is a dangerous misunderstanding.
Xi wants to pull Asia and Africa to Chinaâs orbit, by having them adopt chinaâs development model, which is led by investment and infrastructure. Many of these countries are authoritarian and depends on the West for aids and market access. Imagine all these countries become middle income because they adopt Chinese development model. They wonât be as dependent on the west and find a natural ideological and market partner in China. Thatâs the real strategic goal.
So yes, longer term trade is involved. But not necessarily having China exporting everything. China actually runs current account deficit with many of these countries as they are resources rich.
Also get this âexport is good imports is badâ ideology out of your heads. Itâs simply wrong.
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Key is to sell for cash and donât finance it. If the buyer defaults, then youâre screwed.
The arrangement is complicated. I may be talking too much.
So glad the in-house China expert come in to help. Frankly, I am a little shallow on China 
I think ironduke focuses on how the short-term teething problems are resolved. I sense he felt that it is not been resolved in a way he thinks is equitable and above-board. May be there are other ways to resolve those problems. Is not clear whether he acknowledges that there are long term benefits.
I wasnt arguing about all the points mentioned above. Not my intention. Xi has bigger plan for China to diversify trade with Asian and African countries. I think so too. Want to make China a superpower. I dont disagree.
My point was that BRI is still an export show for overcapacity filled Chinese enterprises, and it proves that China has not been able to become a consumption driven economy that many here were pointing.
Tariffs are hurting China and some posters here are trying to prove that oh they dont because China is not an export driven economy anymore. And they point out to BR. That BS needs to be called out. Thats it.
Long term benefits are for China too. If they are for the poor country then China wont have to bribe its way through. In long term countries will lose their sovereign assets like Sri Lanka was forced to lease a port that is strategic to China (only) for 99 years.
Hope China is building an expeditionary army to protect its investments. Becuase it will soon come to that. And thatâs where the whole superpower unraveling will start.
Guess you are referring to my post. I think you got the wrong perception. Rereading those statements, I might have phrased them badly. Your statement is incorrect because you seem to mix up sequence of events but I think I get what youâre thinking.
Not arguing with you @hanera. I appreciate your insights and analysis in this forum. You certainly have a better IQ than me. Just pointing out that you are wrong here. I may have mixed it as I am down with flu today with plenty of time and short focus.
Goods exports still makes up a big share of Chinese economy, but it has been getting smaller. I never deny trade war will hurt China. It seems itâs the other way around. Many think trade war wonât hurt the US, and I disagree.
Just today Micron mentoned fariffs will take 50 to 100 basis points off their margin. Stocks tanks partly because of that.
I donât intend to mean export-oriented to domestic economy is being signaled by BR 
Lazy writing 
Micron tumbles after CFO says Trump tariffs will hit gross margins
Trade war will hurt US. But the impact would be minimal. They can have a very large and fundamental impact on China.
For US this is best time to do it. Trump knows this.
Agree but is adding rock when China is sinking, not very nice.
50-100 basis points is nothing. Quarterly price erosion is more than that.
Last 12 months micronâs rev is 30B. 100 basis points means they will net 300M less. Itâs more than nothing, and itâs only one firm.
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