Trading wars impact


#1743

You could compare to their COGS. It’d still be less than 1%. If they can’t figure out a way to offset a less than 1% hit, then they are going to have other problems. Commodity prices are never flat. They are always moving.


#1744

Met him twice :grinning:


#1745

What’s their profit on that 150B?


#1746

hmmm… PM me his original nationality. :smile: @Jil don’t worry the secret is safe with me. :slight_smile:


#1747

You’re not living in SV? Should be easy to arrange a meet up at Starbucks :slight_smile:


#1748

Hey that’s my line! Btw @Roy321, didn’t know you are so gossipy :slight_smile:


#1749

:slight_smile: I have my moments…

I’m just having a little fun with @Jil


#1750

That’s not the important part to consider. It’s less than 1% of revenue. If profitability is that low, then they’ll fail the first time there’s a supply shortage that spikes prices.


#1751

Really? Amazon sales last quarter is about 50B and profit 2B. Let’s just do straight line and say amazon will make 200B sales in a year. You take out 1% of that because “it’s not important” and you wipe out one quarter’s profit.

Most businesses operate on thin margins. It may not be important to you but it’s sure important to their employees and shareholders.


#1752

You said, he said, she said, they said, … are too confusing for me.

China says it would cut import tariffs on numerous non-US goods

As well as protecting Chinese consumers, the move was also likely to act as an incentive to stop citizens from buying US goods. By cutting tariff levels on non-US goods while increasing them on American imports, China is effectively steering its consumers away from such items, something that could hurt the US.

Earlier this year, the Chinese government cut its auto-import tariff to 15% from 25%, but just weeks later increased its tariff on US auto imports to 40%. The move boosted imports of Japanese and European autos.

So the winners are Europe (especially Germany) and Japan?

Btw, are there any data on how much of the $505B imports are Chinese products e.g. Huawei vs Outsourced US products e.g. iPhone?


#1753

The real fun would start when US decides to do the same. Promote import of products from other countries over China. China may be leading US to do what US was planning.


#1754

The joke is on China and USA. Everybody else would be laughing to the bank. Time to explore where to buy stocks and RE.


#1755

Joke won’t be on US. May be some short term impact as sourcing and supply chains are modified. We are the largest buyer in the world.

For China this would be very fundamental however.

This desperate equalization is what Chinese are screaming now.


#1756

Bloomberg: Tariffs Start to Drag on U.S. Economy as Trade Deficit Widens

“The data are grim,” Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics Ltd., said in a note, referring to the August goods-trade gap. “The administration’s narrative, that the second-quarter drop in the deficit was a result of their trade policies, has now fallen apart, as it was always likely to do.”

Revised second-quarter data on Thursday showed GDP posted a 4.2 percent annualized pace of expansion – the fastest since 2014. Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Amherst, cut his third-quarter GDP growth estimate to 2.8 percent, from 3 percent. Net exports may subtract as much as 1.5 percentage point from this quarter’s GDP advance, according to Omair Sharif, an economist at Societe Generale SA.

After the Thursday reports, Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan, cut his GDP growth estimate for this quarter to 3 percent, from 3.5 percent, saying in a note that the economy was looking “less boomy, more noisy.”


#1757

Fake news?

Bloomberg: Trade War May Boost China While Hurting U.S. Growth, ECB Says


#1758

We will know the real Q3 numbers soon. Exports are less than 12% of GDP. They’d have to decline by 14% to shrink GDP by 1.5%


#1759

I will take your words for this and hold on to my American stocks. If they dive, I would blame you.

Apparently, manch has evidence to say otherwise. So I’m holding on to China stocks too.

Everybody wish me luck, I am listening to virtual friends’ advice


#1760

I am an actual friend. :smile: that just means I will harm you more. :smiling_imp:


#1761

Bloomberg: JPMorgan Says U.S.-China Tariffs to Go All Out, Lowers Yuan Call

The new baseline on the trade war also “raises medium-term questions for the world’s most-expensive equity market (U.S.) and one of its cheapest (China),” they wrote. U.S. earnings estimates will be under pressure due to higher costs thanks to tariff hikes. “Full tariffs could trigger first earnings downgrades of Trump era.”


#1762

NAFTA vs USMCA, are there substantive differences?