Trading wars impact


#1924

#1925

I was expecting Trump-Xi declare such positive notes, that is why rushed last week to double aapl and other stocks!


#1926

https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-says-u-s-china-relations-have-taken-big-leap-forward-1543847551


#1927

Not good. Look like the truce is just to please his WS friends.


#1928

WS?

Added later: Got it… Wall Street


#1929

This week’s Economist cover:

Semiconductors is at the core of the fight. It’s where America has absolute advantage, for now. I wrote about the following somewhere here:

Moreover, China’s bid to become a global semiconductor powerhouse is propitiously timed. For decades the chip industry has been driven forward by Moore’s law, under which the capabilities of a chip of a given size double every two years. But Moore’s law is reaching its physical limits. As everyone jumps to new technologies, from quantum computing to specialised ai chips, China has a rare chance to catch up.


#1930

A White House official said the 90-day period started on Dec. 1. Earlier, White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow told reporters it would start on Jan. 1.

https://news.yahoo.com/trade-truce-china-means-big-changes-beijing-policy-153013180--finance.html


#1931

The author overplayed his case somewhat, but I agree with his broad argument. Semiconductor manufacturing is extremely hard. It will be many years before China catches up, if it can at all.

China concluded that Trump wants to look like a winner, and decided to give him what he wanted. Senior advisers to the Chinese government explained this to me last October. The new Chinese consensus holds that the world’s largest country can afford to be patient, concentrate on raising productivity and per capita income, and forego bragging rights about its growing economic power. As I wrote from Beijing:

“The United States during the 19th century did not attempt to impose its will on other countries, [one advisor] noted. Only after the Second World War did the United States act like a major power. China, he concluded, will have to take a more modest role in world affairs ‘until 2035, when it will be a much more powerful country.’”

There is a coterie of advisers in and around the Trump Administration that appeared to believe that trade war would damage China’s economy so severely as to destabilize the rule of Xi Jinping. For years, the American consensus held that China’s opening to the world economy inevitably would lead to a democratic transformation of this ancient empire. When that failed to happen, the same advisers argued that the Chinese system must collapse of its own weight because (as they believe) the American way of doing things is the only right one.


#1932

Part of Tuesday’s stock market plunge may have stemmed from money managers giving up on getting clarity from President Donald Trump and his administration on their policies, CNBC’s Jim Cramer said as stocks settled.

“We have maximum uncertainty. That makes people want to sell. That’s how money managers view the situation,” the “Mad Money” host said after the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the day nearly 800 points lower.

Over the weekend, Trump struck a cease-fire on trade with President Xi Jinping of China at the G-20 summit in Argentina. According to the White House, the two leaders agreed to postpone the Trump administration’s planned tariff hike from 10 to 25 percent for 90 days starting Dec. 1.

But while one White House camp — namely top economic advisor Larry Kudlow and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin — seem optimistic about the prospect of a deal, U.S. Trade Representative and known China hawk Robert Lighthizer has emerged as a leading candidate for running the negotiations.

That sets up a battle between those who want a deal and those who would rather see China shed the title of global superpower, Cramer said.

"The president seems to actually enjoy these face-offs. They’ve become his style. The White House is the Thunderdome: two policies enter, one policy leaves," the “Mad Money” host said. “But the markets crave certainty, which means they hate this kind of master-blaster, Mad Max confrontation.”

As a result, professional money managers — whose jobs call for predicting how certain policies will impact their investments — “feel like they’ve been had,” Cramer said.

"This is not some reality show, for heaven’s sake. It’s real life: real jobs on the line, [a] real economy at stake. While the president had a huge hit with ‘The Apprentice,’ governing the most powerful nation on earth is more serious than going to the top floor to learn who’s been fired," he said.


#1933

#1934

That’s pure American imperialism. Everyone in the world needs to obey American law, but not the other way around.

An ex-HK high level official was just convicted this morning on corruption charges. He was found guilty of bribing some African country leaders. But the alleged crime didn’t happen on American soil and none of the parties are American citizens. So why American court has jurisdiction? Because the HK man wired money thru an American bank and his email account was on an American company server.

Imagine a world the other way around. Random American gets locked up and shipped to China for violating Chinese laws.


#1935

Evidence Trump cares deeply about stock market. It’s like an instant scoreboard for him.

China hawk Navarro on trade talks Markets should be patient and optimistic - MarketWatch


#1936

He should know better. If the stock market nosedived during his first term, how’s he going to get reelected?


#1937

That’s why I thought there’d be a China trade deal before midterms. These things take time though.


#1938

It can’t be both ways though. People get upset about the US for that, but they also get mad about the US doing nothing Saudi Arabia killing the journalist.


#1939

It can be phrased the other way around. US has a monopoly on power without upholding the moral standard that requires.

I don’t get upset at the Saudi murder. It’s just realpolitik. But I think Trump made the wrong calculation. He could have squeezed MBS more and there’s nothing he can do. Saudis need US way more than we need Saudis. Trump is wasting a strong hand we have.


#1940

Saudi Arabia and the entire Middle East will devolve into the abyss when the world relinquish its dependence on oil with the advent of Tsla :slight_smile:


#1941

For once I agree with you. Keep it up. :smile:


#1942

We can still talk about Moral standards. Wait for China to become superpower:grinning:

I am curious on why you think DT hasn’t gotten enough from MBS? I am sure not everything would be made public.


#1943

What has Trump got from MBS? If Trump publicly condemned MBS would he still have gotten the same deal? I bet yes. Because Saudis don’t hold that many cards.