Uh, Party's Over?

More people coming than leaving. .I did noiice the zillow value of my RWC house is down from a year ago.Maybe I sold at the peak…Still don’t see why Emerald Hills is so much cheaper than any other Peninsula fortress city…The only bargain left…I sold for $600/sf…Best deal on the whole peninsula. .half the price of houses less than 10 miles away. .

Supposedly inventory is up around the Bay… winds of change???

I think most people can’t afford to buy when they first move here. They move here as renters. Where if you owned here, it’s easy to buy in another state.

Then there’s this statement:

“CoreLogic’s data shows that the price appreciation was much higher in states where owners are moving out, while there is less appreciation in areas where out-of-state owners are moving in.”

Clearly people moving isn’t causing population decline or home prices would be falling.

More like stalemate. Sellers still refuse to lower price despite slower market.

Pending home sales isn’t that useful of indicator. How many days inventory vs last year? That’s a much better indicator. A 2.5% fall in homes pending could be meaningless if there’s 10% less homes on the market.

Talking to some construction guys, they foresee a slowdown in the business.

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Thanks for the intel from the field…

The only problem is, SFHs are still selling like hot cakes. I’m walking home from the bus stop today and I see one of my neighbors who is a semi-retired realtor with 30+ years experience. I stop to chit chat. He informs he knows how much our mutual neighbor sold his SFH for. Approx 1.5M all cash.

We hear so much about the condos piling up without buyers. Of course, construction will slow down then. The marketplace is simply not clearing the inventory. I have to think prices on those luxury condos that are sitting will come down a lot. The laws of economics take no prisoners…

In my neighborhood, I’ve seen an explosion in what appears to be people getting ready for market. Maybe 3 houses cleared out garages/furniture. Two redid landscaping. Two are doing major remodels. Two are having concrete poured for something. Maybe I’m wrong and this is just the season for renovation… But I’m also in coco so the market is not the same

Dragon boy, you keep thinking condos and SFH’s are on different planets. Dude, they are both bought by people. If one is vastly out of whack the other will also get affected. Let’s say condo price crashed. The same high end condos overlooking the Bay Bridge are having a 20% discount. You don’t think it will pull at least some people away from SFH’s?

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If SFH declines, don’t you think it would pull some people away from buying condos?

I believe the buyers of SFHs are financially stronger than those buying condos, so prices of SFHs would be more sticky i.e. don’t fall as fast.

Of course. The two markets are interrelated. They don’t exist in a vacuum by themselves.

If you are talking about high end condos in SF that start at 1.5M and up, I don’t think the buyers are “weaker” than SFH’s buyer. They may have different preferences. The SF high end condo market is having a lot of new supplies now, so that pulls down prices. I actually see prices falling too on some SFH’s. By falling I mean many are having to cut their over-ambitious asking price. If you compare YoY sale price prices are still higher than last year I bet.

Good time to be a buyer.

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Still not buyers’ market yet. Just ambitious* asking price coming down. *Some sellers ask 10% above last transacted price… just coming back to Earth… ask market price.

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I actually do believe they are on somewhat different planets. People like me, who are admittingly biased for SFHs would never buy condos. Period. The reality is that condos are a different animal with characteristics I don’t find appealing so a pricing cut isn’t gonna sway me much. So imagine a lot of people who think like that. What happens? The supply of condos keep increasing if the demand is not keeping up with the new production from even folks who like them and the SFHs are fought over even more so due to their relative scarcity. Isn’t that in fact what we are seeing locally? I just mentioned it in another thread. My neighbor who is a semi retired realtor veteran found out that our mutual neighbor (in between us on same street) just sold his SFH home for approx 1.5M all cash. Over asking but not by a lot. But, still, very strong for Central Sunset. I don’t care what you say, that kind of buyer is not looking at the condo market.

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I’m actually curious about this statement. If we look at the buyers’ population down in suburban cities (Peninsula, South Bay, etc), they’re predominantly older folks with families with kids. So it’s natural for them to find SFHs with good schools. So there’s a huge difference in price between SFHs and condos/2BR THs.

For San Francisco, does the same formula work? There’s hardly any good school district to speak of, school assignments are lottery, and SF as a city is just not a good place to raise kids - I’m hesitant to send my wife to grocery stores for most parts of the city, so imagine my nightmare when my kids would walk on the streets. In fact, most of my colleagues who used to live in the city move down when they have kids.

Having said that, everyone I know (I mean everyone) who live in the city don’t have kids, and don’t plan to have one. They much prefer to live near work and things to do. A couple I know bought a condo in Potrero Hills (they both work in the city) because they’d rather live in a dinky condo than having to commute from Noe Valley / Sunset. If this becomes the norm, wouldn’t that also change the landscape a little? We’ve seen that happen in other cities that SF is thought to be heading to: New York, Vancouver, London, Tokyo, Shanghai, Hong Kong, …

Extrapolating on the population bit more: imagine the typical tech folks who made the their downpayment from from his/her company IPO. They’re typically in their 20~30s, and they’d look at places close to their work or close to their nightlife. It’s hard to believe they’d pick Noe Valley or Sunset ``because they can live in SFHs for the same price’’.

I had to be the one to open a topic again, don’t you miss me?:laughing:

I believe there are 2 buyers. One, he goes and buys anything disregarding the market BS. Those are the one buying in very high pricing areas. They won’t budge when you give them a quote regarding any job at their properties. (from contractors word of mouth).

The second is the one buying because of need and because he is left behind and because as some investors have told them their property will be this $much in the future so he or she needs to hurry up and buy.

I saw a topic on SF where prices have doubled since 2012 or so. That has happened with my property. I can easily sell for $700K+ and walk away with what its price was initially. But, where do I go?

Good to know that :slight_smile:. In Singapore, the filthy rich (top 1%) stay in GCB (big lot SFH), bs rich stay in Semi-Detached (duplex)/ Penthouse/ leasehold bungalows, middle class stay in condo/ HUDC/ Maisonette HDB/ good 5-room HDB, rest stay in 3/4/5 rooms HDB. Singapore houses are divided into free hold (your land forever), 999 years (land is yours for 999 years) and 99 years (land yours for 99 years). HDBs are all 99-year lease.

SF and MV might go the same direction as Singapore i.e. SFHs there could be become pretty expensive. The rest of the Bay Area should remain mostly SFHs :grinning:

Same question I ask when I was owning only one owner-occupied property… work harder, to afford a rental :slight_smile:



Geez, there’s a lot of content in there…

Briefly, I don’t have skin in the game (no kids) so my opinion is what it is. I personally feel the city is a great place to raise your kids. Kids are too soft today. I was taking public trans in SF on my own and going into the Mission from Chinatown during middle school years. Then rode all the way to Lowell for high school. Take our fearless leader @manch for example. He moves from San Jose to the City because of a chinese immersion class or something to that effect. He can obviously provide more on that for you. Now, ask him if he bought a condo or SFH…:slight_smile:

That has always been the trend, people felt the City’s schools were not good enough so they moved down south for not only that but suburban homes, weather and parking. I will be honest with you. From seeing my own nephews/nieces and my close friends’ kids, the city bred kids turned out fine. One, recent one, went to Lowell, went to Cal and ended up at UCSF med school. Yes, no private schools at all. I have seen kids raised in suburbia and despite the good schooling not turn out so well. Either spoiled or just not prep’d for the real world. That is on the parents, not the school system.

I can go on and on but this is a dialogue. I get the allure of the city but your long commute is a concern for me. It sounds like you both work pretty hard so to add to it a long commute can be trying on your health and relationship. Again, it obviously depends, but older built homes are actually much better. Again, what you see (the appliances, etc) can all be modernized and nice but what I am speaking about is the bones of the house. The framing, the wood used.

I don’t understand the hesitation to own a SFH in the peninsula where the schools are good and the commute is tolerable or even short. We all get it and love the city but it is there for you when you want it occasionally for chicken wings for example.