Under Trump's Exec Order, 75% of Illegals Could Be Deported

Huh? Laws against illegal immigration are in the books. And nobody is supporting illegal immigration but republicans. Most of ranch owners in the Central valley in California, Idaho, Florida, vote for republicans. They recruit upwards of 3,000 undocumented people to work on their plantations or nurseries as of now. Yes, as of now! Facebook is full of ads asking for labor to do this and that. $10.50 an hour.

I know, because people close to them have told me, they take pictures with any republican candidate but behind the curtain, they are harboring illegal immigrants because without them they wouldn’t make a buck.

Some people are blind to the fact that Obama beat Bush on deportations and he didn’t need a wall. And adding 5,000 border patrols agents on top of that doesn’t make sense. Where are the darn drones when you need them?
Reports and word of mouth with people I know is that there are more people leaving the US than entering the border illegally, except of course those illegals from Asia, Europe, Canada, all over the world, rich people who can buy a visa in their countries, and overstay their time allotment. With an entry stamped on your passport, you just marry and American and everything is solved.

I hope the deportations are over the board, high techies, Hispanics, Asians, you name it. I certainly would love to see the highways empty a little bit. And the desolation on some rental complexes will mitigate some crime and noise.

I am all for it. Cheap rent, and an opportunity for those Americans left behind to buy a property when the RE market crashes due to so many empty properties in the market.

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Trump thinks he gets a negotiating upper hand by being unpredictable. That might work for a few million dollar deal, but not when you are running a country. The economy needs stability.

Case in point, we want people to trust us when we do things like grant leniency. Whether or not you agree with leniency, it was a promise made by the US. To go back on that promise signals to everyone else that you can’t trust anything the government says. People thinking about buying homes in the bay area start wondering what else Trump will change. Uncertainty = fewer home sales or lower prices.


Where is the promise for a grand leniency?

Considering a huge portion of the population is priced out of ownership, they’d welcome lower prices. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if the Bay Area implements a foreign buyer tax the way Vancouver did.

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I came to this thread late. But I want to applaud you for this excellent distinction between stock (how many are already there) vs flow (how many will come every year). Most people who studied the costs of deportation - both economic and human - agree we should stop the flow but not deport everybody who’s already here. Deporting 11M people is hugely expensive economically and disruptive socially.

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The impact on local RE will be minor I think. We have sanctuaries up and down the Bay Area and we may see the entire state of CA go sanctuary.

The effect will be mostly felt in red states like Arizona and Texas. Over there local police are more than eager to help. Think Sheriff Joe. I know he lost his job but I bet there are still many mini-Joes’ out there. So what will happen if there are massive deportations in Texas? Will we see the Austin market gutted?

Obama drew the distinction between undocumented who committed serious crimes, vs others who just want to work, raise a family and get on with their lives. It’s a sensible and pragmatic policy.

From your headline: “Immigrant mom living in Arizona illegally was granted leniency under Obama administration”

Leniency was already granted. Amazon doesn’t cancel all it’s contracts when it gets a new CEO. That’s not how things work.

Maybe the leniency was granted by the journalist, not Obama :tired_face:

Well, it looks like ICE raids can still happen in CA.

What would trigger an ICE raid? Are the raid targeting some kind of crime or illegal working or else?

Mostly criminals. Will ICE target sanctuary cities more?

The article you linked quoted ICE saying “many” of them committed felonies:

It did not provide an exact breakdown but said that “many” of those arrested had prior felony convictions for serious offenses that included child sex crimes, weapons, and assault. It said 95 percent of the arrestees were men.

It may very well be routine, and nothing controversial if Obama did the same thing. But Trump’s rhetorics and EO’s have poisoned the well. Many now see any kind of ICE actions with suspicion, which makes enforcement harder not easier.


JC says:
February 10, 2017 at 11:00 am
Obama’s old USBP chief is gone. That’s what’s going on. The Border Patrol Association said he was a disaster. Now that he is gone, they can do their jobs. Support our Police and let them do our job.

Just read this wonky report from Cato, published in June 2016:


Up until 1994 Hispanics in California were more or less evenly divided between Republican and Democrat. But after Pete Wilson ran a nativist campaign and later the passing of Prop 187, there was a sharp turn in Hispanic voting pattern:

Percent Distribution of Hispanic Vote in California Gubernatorial Elections


The Cato article contrasts California with Texas. Bush was running for governor in Texas at the time, and ran on a mostly pro-immigrant platform:

Hispanic Vote for Republican Gubernatorial Candidate, Texas and California


Fast forward to now. Trump puts the national GOP on a nativist platform. I think it will most likely alienate a huge chunk of Hispanic voters. Not only that, but immigrants who are on green card now will rush to naturalize, and their votes will be sharply Democratic.

The Cato article’s conclusion:

The California Republican Party’s decision to represent the anti-immigration wing of the American electorate in the early 1990s destroyed that state’s GOP for at least a generation in exchange for winning one election in 1994 and a symbolic victory on Proposition 187 that didn’t actually change policy. That’s a bad deal that the Republican Party should avoid making again.

Except they did make that bad deal again. Times 10.

Washington Post has a report. Let’s see what will happen


Not even money, bunches of real estate will save you from packing up and let go per the white Supremacists supporting Trump. (with in turn tells me those voting for him would deserve whatever comes their way)

Here, this guys says European model needs to be in place in this America, Asians, Hispanics, bye bye!

Disregard the Spanish wording, but they are speaking in English.

Nathan Fletcher, a retired Marine and former California Assemblyman, says he was shocked to learn that anyone who had served in the armed forces would face deportation.

“Anyone willing to die for their country should have a country willing to give them citizenship. And it’s what they were promised when they joined,” Fletcher says.

Fletcher is now lobbying Congress to change the law and allow these veterans back. He argues that automatic citizenship is the agreement the military makes with anyone who takes up arms in the name of the United States.

Once a deported veteran dies, the law says they are eligible for a burial in a National Cemetery with full honors anywhere in the United States.

Nathan Fletcher, the retired Marine, points out the irony: “We will bring their dead body across the border. We will play ‘Taps.’ We will fold the flag, and a military officer will hand the flag to the family member and say: ‘A grateful nation appreciates your husband’s service.’"

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Except that if you look at the election, Trump got more Hispanics votes than Romney did. Perhaps Hispanics here legally are getting tired of illegal immigration as well? The future isn’t always a derivation of the past.

If the water in the pipe saw that the stock water was not being removed, more of the water in the pipe will leak. This was a stupid analogy to begin with since the water in the pipe can’t see and react.