Update On Housing Market

RE market seems to correlate to FAANMG. They peaked in Oct 2018 and many are returning to that high now. RE also peaked in Oct 2018 and is recovering.

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Some areas seem to be doing well

I suggested before in another thread that we might have a population in California that is peaking at 40 million. California has only seen a rising population in last 5 decades. If the population does not grow, where would an extra supply of homes go? And what will happen to prices?

Why is it a problem? No people, no problem.
Solve the housing problem where the younger people are going.

Good point, that’s why it’s best to analyze at a smaller scale, i.e. township vs. township or village vs. village. For example, San Bernardino County population has not decreased since the civil war 150 years ago. People are flocking there in droves and real estate investments there are much safer than :pound: Sterling in a :bank: vault plus they offer handsome dividends to :uk: and eu residents. On the other hand, people are fleeing certain areas :surfing_man: within California and so those areas could be at risk of depreciation​:chart_with_downwards_trend:. Yucca Valley and Phelan looking good, growing :dart:.

2015 San Bernardino Attack

The population of San Bernardio has only grown by 2.9% (about 5000) since 2010 (in about 9 years). Does not seem like a very rapid increase.

The US is one of the few developed nations that is still growing and expected to grow thru 2050. If nothing else, California will benefit from the nations growth. Plus the increased movement of population into a few dense urban areas, will result in more people in the Bay Area from rural-urban migration

A better headline would have been:
Why can’t California pass more housing legislation to steal from the landlords and the current residents and pass it on to tenants and new residents. I am afraid of some of the very high-density neighborhoods become low-quality housing may become ghost towns if they fail to attract new residents.

I have seen some people who want to move out of great mall are, a high-density mecca in Milpitas, CA

There is a shortage of at least 2 million homes in CA. I doubt we will see a glut of supply in my lifetime. There is still net growth. And many people are waiting to upgrade. Think of all the roommates that would like a place of their own. Think about the biggest generation ever needing more new households than ever. The millennials with rich parents will benefit. Others will be doomed to substandard rental housing forever.

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Was talking about county not city and I don’t go by population estimates, only actual census data but for the county, pop growth estimate was 6.7% for 2010-2018. Growth is measured by more than population. Jobs, new houses, commercial investment, government projects, infrastructure and more make growth not just a bunch of hard working people newly arrived moving into dilapidated high rises. There are dozens of news articles from LA Times alone which show the area as fast growing. But more than growth is quality of growth. Single family homes are being built and occupied, not substandard housing as is so common in other areas, but large comfortable homes on acre plus lots. Also, the population is very international, all signs point toward continued REI success in the region. As always there will be people who miss the boat, naysayers, doubters. Carry on :palm_tree:

Agree to the roommates wanting their own homes and also the upgrade part. I know a lot of people who work in South Bay but live in the Tricity Area (pleasonton/dublin/san ramon, or even tracy and mt house). They will certainly want to live in South Bay and work here too.

I am sharing what I read here are there. For example, look at this one

There is an infographic at the bottom. Set year to 2016 and hover over santa clara and san mateo counties. Both actually lost population according to this.

This is just a snapshot and yet not confirmed as a long term trend. It is surprising given that bay area economy is red hot right now.

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Recently I notice many new bloggers promoting certain neighborhoods. Remember the inland promotion? Where is that guy now?

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I have been betting on the BA since 1976.
Been betting on the Sacramento MSA since 1989. Keep an eye on long term trends. RE investing is a marathon not a sprint.

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